Weekly Economic Update: May 2012

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Economic Update for the week of May 28th, 2012

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE

“Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.”

- George S. Patton

WEEKLY TIP

New parents can sometimes spend a little too much on cute and trendy stuff. Here’s a test: will the item improve the quality of care for your baby? If not, leave it at the store.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

Five girls took part in a bicycle race. Barbara finished before Vicki but behind Susan. Katarina finished before Sara but behind Vicki. In what order did they finish?

Last week’s riddle:

You need to park a car for the weekend. You find a parking space signed “2-Hour Parking M-F, 8am-6pm” with no other restrictions. You call the city and find that overnight parking is allowed on this block. So, what is the maximum amount of time you can leave your car in this space without getting a ticket?

Last week’s answer:

66 hours. You can park in the space from 4pm Friday until 10am Monday.

May 28, 2012

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SINCE 2007

In a tense week for investors, some promising news emerged: the closely watched Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in with a final reading of 79.3 for May – the ninth straight monthly improvement. May’s 3.8% gain brought the index to a peak unseen since October 2007. The survey’s current conditions index rose 5.2% in May to 87.2, the best reading in that category since January 2008.¹

HOMEBUYING PICKS UP
More good news: sales of new and existing homes improved in April. Last week, the Census Bureau reported a 3.3% April rise in new home purchases, just after the National Association of Realtors noted a 3.4% gain in residential resales for the month. In April, the pace of existing home sales nearly matched that of January – and January was the best month for the indicator in two years.²

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS INCREASE 0.2%

The overall April gain refuted the forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch – they felt orders would decrease 0.4% after a revised 3.7% drop for March. However, hard goods orders did fall 0.6% in April with transportation orders factored out.³

STOCKS MANAGE GAINS

For much of the week, Wall Street’s collective mind was on two things: ongoing capital flight from European banks and the risk of Greece exiting the euro. Thanks to some positive data stateside, and despite the debut of social media giant Facebook (down 17.4% in its first week as a publicly traded company), stocks broke a 3-week losing streak. The numbers across five trading days: S&P 500, +1.74% to 1,317.82; DJIA, +0.69% to 12,454.83; NASDAQ, +2.11% to 2,837.53. NYMEX crude (-0.68% for the week) settled at $90.86 Friday while COMEX gold (-1.44% on the week) settled at $1,568.90.⁴

THIS WEEK: Monday is Memorial Day, so U.S. equity and bond markets will be closed. Tuesday brings the March edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board’s snapshot of May consumer confidence. The NAR puts out its report on April pending home sales on Wednesday while TiVo issues Q1 results. Thursday, investors will check the latest initial jobless claims figures and react to the second estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. Friday is big: in one market day, we get the May unemployment report from the Labor Department, April’s consumer spending numbers from the Commerce Department, ISM’s April manufacturing survey and data on April construction spending and May auto sales.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+1.94	+0.49	-1.56	+2.33
NASDAQ	+8.92	+2.76	+2.19	+7.08
S&P 500	+4.79	-0.20	-2.61	+2.16
REAL YIELD	5/25 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.38%	0.80%	2.49%	3.48%

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 5/25/12^4,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.

«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 - thomsonreuters.com/content/financial/pdf/i_and_a/438965/gains_in_confidence_depends_on_job_growth.pdf [5/25/12]

2 - www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57439946/solid-rise-in-new-home-sales/ [5/23/12]

3 - articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-24/economy/31831869_1_orders-for-long-lasting-goods-aircraft-and-parts-orders-durable-goods-orders [5/25/12]

4 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=84efdd91-09d9-46c5-befa-9110478068c4 [5/25/12]

5 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F25%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F25%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F24%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F24%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F24%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/25/12]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/25/12]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/25/12]

8 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Economic Update for the week of May 21st, 2012

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE

“Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work.”

- Aristotle

WEEKLY TIP

If marriage will give you a new last name, be sure to notify Social Security, your bank, and the investment and insurance companies with whom you have accounts and policies about the name change.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

You need to park a car for the weekend. You find a parking space marked “2-Hour Parking M-F, 8am-6pm” with no other restrictions. You call the city and find that overnight parking is allowed on this block. So, what is the maximum amount of time you can leave your car in this space without getting a ticket?

Last week’s riddle:

We know that a seahorse isn’t a horse, and we know that a silverfish isn’t a fish. For that matter, a snakehead isn’t a snake – but what is it?

Last week’s answer:

A predatory fish found in both Asia and Africa.

May 21, 2012

FACEBOOK DEBUT DIVERTS ATTENTION FROM EUROPE

Facebook’s IPO set a new record for a stock debut Friday – volume surpassed 578 million shares. The gain was small: shares closed at $38.23 at the end of regular trading, up 0.61% from the initial $38 offering price. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended the trading week below 1,300, a casualty of renewed pessimism over the future of the euro and debt burdens in Spain and Greece. Greece dissolved its parliament Friday and set new elections for June, increasing global fears that it will exit the euro. Moody’s issued downgrades for 16 Spanish banks on Thursday, and one of them was Banco Santander – the biggest bank in the Eurozone.^1,2

CPI IS FLAT FOR APRIL
According to the Commerce Department, April brought no change in the Consumer Price Index and only a 0.1% advance in retail sales. Annualized consumer inflation was at 2.3% last month, the lowest in 14 months. Core CPI was up 0.2% in April.³

CONFERENCE BOARD LEI DECLINES

The private research group’s monthly index of leading economic indicators retreated 0.1% for April after a 0.3% March gain. On the upside, the index has risen 1.8% in the past six months compared to 0.1% in the six months prior.⁴

HOUSING STARTS RISE 2.6% IN APRIL

Homebuilders broke ground on 717,000 homes in April. Single-family construction starts were up 2.3% from March levels.⁵

HEADWINDS SWEEP THROUGH WALL STREET

Facebook frenzy notwithstanding, the market had it rough last week. The major index performance during May 14-18: S&P 500, -4.30% to 1,295.22; DJIA, -3.52% to 12,369.38; NASDAQ, -5.28% to 2,778.79. The end-of-day yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.69% last Thursday, near the all-time intraday low of 1.67%.^1,6,7

THIS WEEK: Monday brings Q1 results from Urban Outfitters, Lowe’s and Campbell’s Soup. Tuesday, the NAR gives us data on April existing home sales and Q1 results are in from AutoZone, Best Buy and Dell. Wednesday brings fresh earnings reports from Hewlett-Packard, Big Lots, Toll Bros. and Pandora and the Census Bureau’s numbers on April new home sales. A report on April durable goods orders arrives on Thursday, along with earnings from Costco and Tiffany. Friday brings no earnings reports, but the final May Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will appear.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+1.24	-1.52	-1.75	+1.95
NASDAQ	+6.67	-1.29	+1.72	+5.96
S&P 500	+2.99	-3.39	-2.99	+1.70
REAL YIELD	5/18 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.39%	0.82%	2.46%	3.48%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 5/18/12^1,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Citations.

1 - www.cnbc.com/id/47474749 [5/18/12]

2 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=15dbd105-1ce5-4661-bb8d-c81baa7700e5 [5/18/12]

3 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304192704577405853805485804.html [5/15/12]

4 - articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-17/economy/31737721_1_consumer-goods-and-materials-economic-indicators-negative-contributions [5/18/12]

5 - thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1091-housing/227711-builders-start-construction-on-more-homes-in-april [5/16/12]

6 - www.cnbc.com/id/47480281 [5/18/12]

7 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F18%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F17%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F17%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F17%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/18/12]

9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/18/12]

9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/18/12]

10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Economic Update for the week of May 14th, 2012

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE

“He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.”

- Muhammad Ali

WEEKLY TIP

If you and your partner aren’t married, it might be prudent to create a domestic partnership agreement that states how expenses are shared, how assets are owned, and how those assets should be distributed in the event of your death(s) or the dissolution of the relationship.

WEEKLY RIDDLE

We know that a seahorse isn’t a horse, and we know that a silverfish isn’t a fish. For that matter, a snakehead isn’t a snake – but what is it?

Last week’s riddle:

About 90% of this country’s land area is made up of arid tan desert, yet its flag is solid green – in fact, at present it is the only nation in the world with a flag containing just one color. What nation is this?

Last week’s answer:

Libya.

May 14, 2012

CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 4-YEAR PEAK

May’s initial Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in with an index reading of 77.8, the highest mark since January 2008. The current economic conditions sub-index rose to 87.3 from last month’s final 82.9 reading. Descending oil and gas prices may have been factors promoting some optimism.¹

BIGGEST DROP IN PPI In 6 MONTHS
Falling energy prices influenced this development as well. Producer prices retreated 0.2% in April according to the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast no change. The bulk of the retreat was attributed to the 1.4% April drop in energy costs. The PPI has only risen 1.9% in the last 12 months, the smallest annualized wholesale price inflation recorded since October 2009.^2,3

GOLD & OIL PRICES RETREAT

After anxieties emerged last week about a China slowdown, the broad commodities market took a hit. So at Friday’s close, gold had fallen 3.72% across five trading days to $1,584.00 per ounce while crude futures had slipped 2.40% to $96.13 a barrel. As of Friday evening, gold was +1.10% YTD and oil was -2.73% YTD.²

NEW DOUBTS IN THE EU AFFECT STOCKS

Eurozone elections brought new worries about whether Greece would abide by austerity cuts and stick with the euro. Efforts to form a coalition government in Greece stalled last week, and French president Nicolas Sarkozy was defeated in his reelection bid by socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Factor in the usual spring thoughts about whether stocks are ready to pull back, and the weekly losses were as follows: S&P 500, -1.15% to 1,353.39; DJIA, -1.67% to 12,820.60; NASDAQ, -0.76% to 2,933.82.^2,4,8

THIS WEEK: Facebook’s IPO is scheduled for Friday, and there are plenty of other news items on tap. On Monday, Groupon comes out with Q1 results. Tuesday, the April CPI appears plus data on April retail sales and earnings from JCPenney, TJX, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Saks and Home Depot. Wednesday brings data on April housing starts and industrial output, the April 25 FOMC minutes, and Q1 results from Deere, Abercrombie & Fitch, Target, Staples and Limited Brands. The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index and new initial claims figures are out Thursday, joined by Q1 earnings from Wal-Mart, Dollar Tree, Ross Stores, Gap, Aeropostale and Sears. As Facebook starts trading on Friday, a G8 summit also starts at Camp David; Q1 results also arrive from Ann, Inc. (formerly Ann Taylor).

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.94	+1.51	-0.76	+2.90
NASDAQ	+12.62	+3.12	+2.90	+8.33
S&P 500	+7.62	+0.84	-2.02	+2.83
REAL YIELD	5/11 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.28%	0.76%	2.30%	3.48%

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 5/11/12^2,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Citations.

1 - www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-in-may-at-post-recession-high-2012-05-11 [5/11/12]

2 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=eb995dbd-6940-465b-8bcb-3488ef1c2b7e [5/11/12]

3 - www.nytimes.com/2012/05/12/business/economy/us-wholesale-inflation-falls.html [5/12/12]

4 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F11%2F07&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F10%2F02&x=0&y=0 [5/11/12]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/11/12]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/11/12]

7 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

8 - www.sacbee.com/2012/05/10/4483985/as-europes-economic-outlook-darkens.html [5/11/12]