Economic Update for the week of December 28th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “There are some things you learn best in calm, and some in storm.”      - Willa Cather            WEEKLY TIP               If you are older than 50 with substantial retirement savings, you might want to look at your asset allocation in terms of how little you are willing to lose. If your asset allocation is more or less the way it was several years ago, it may be time to revisit it.          WEEKLY RIDDLE             What time of day is spelled the same forwards and backwards?    Last week’s riddle: So gentle it soothes the skin, so forceful it cracks rocks, so light it serves as a mirror to the clouds. What could it be?       Last week’s answer: Water.	December 28, 2016    HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SLOWS IN NOVEMBER Last month, consumer spending increased 0.2%, while consumer incomes were flat. November was the first month in nine in which household incomes failed to rise, and the consumer spending advance was half that of October. Even so, with consumer confidence indices and other economic indicators becoming stronger, the November figures may represent an anomaly. Another Department of Commerce report revised third-quarter growth up to 3.5%.1      CONSUMER OPTIMISM AT A 13-YEAR PEAK  The University of Michigan’s last consumer sentiment index of 2016 came in at 98.2, 4.4 points above its final November mark. It has not been that high since January 2004. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected an advance to 98.0.2    HOME SALES RISE AS TEMPERATURES DROP Resales were up 0.7% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Census Bureau recorded a 5.2% November gain in new home buying. In October, new home sales fell 1.4%, while existing home sales improved 1.5%.3        CORE PCE PRICE INDEX SHOWS 1.6% YEARLY ADVANCE The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation meter was flat in November after ticking up 0.1% in October. The annualized gain was thereby reduced 0.2% to a number well under the central bank’s 2.0% target.1,3        SMALL WEEKLY GAINS FOR STOCKS Across the last five trading days, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all gained a little ground. The blue chips rose another 0.46% to 19,933.81; the S&P, another 0.25% to 2,263.79. As for the Nasdaq, the tech benchmark gained 0.47% to settle at 5,462.69 Friday. More consequential, perhaps, was the descent of the CBOE VIX. The “fear index,” gauging market volatility, ended the week at a remarkably low 11.44, falling 6.23% in five days.4   THIS WEEK: U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its last consumer confidence index of 2016 and the October S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index appears. The NAR issues its November pending home sales report on Wednesday.  Investors consider the latest initial unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Nothing major is slated for Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +14.40 +13.24 +12.43 +6.15 NASDAQ +9.09 +8.26 +21.72 +12.75 S&P 500 +10.76 +9.66 +15.78 +6.05 REAL YIELD 12/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.58% 0.76% -0.04% 2.35%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/23/164,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN14B1J8 [12/22/16] 2 - cnbc.com/2016/12/23/consumer-sentiment-reports-for-december-2016.html [12/23/16] 3 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [12/23/16] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/23/16] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/23/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/23/16]

Economic Update for the week of December 21st, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “The heads of strong old age are beautiful beyond all grace of youth.”      - Robinson Jeffers            WEEKLY TIP               Need some business capital? Be aware that most banks and credit unions will want you to put 20% down as a condition of a loan. Lenders will probably also ask to see up to three years of your firm’s financial records.           WEEKLY RIDDLE             So gentle it soothes the skin, so forceful it cracks rocks, so light it serves as a mirror to the clouds. What could it be?    Last week’s riddle: I have roads but no cars, forests but no trees, and cities but no people. What am I?       Last week’s answer: A map.	December 21, 2016    FED RAISES RATES, PLOTS THREE 2017 HIKES Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously chose to raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point last week. That was expected; less expected was the central bank’s adjustment to its 2017 dot-plot. Fed officials now see three rate hikes next year instead of two. The move to the new target range of 0.50-0.75% sent the dollar and bond yields higher Wednesday – the yield on the 2-year note quickly touched a peak unseen since August 2009. Stocks suffered only moderate losses after the announcement. Federal Open Market Committee members now forecast economic growth of 2.1% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018.1      RETAIL SALES TICK UP, PRODUCER PRICES RISE Economists, polled by Briefing.com, had expected a 0.4% October advance for retail purchases; the gain was only 0.1% instead, and 0.2% minus car and truck sales. The Producer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after a flat October; the core PPI also posted a 0.4% increase. Inflation pressure remained steady for the consumer: both the headline and core Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2% in November.2    HOUSING STARTS FALL FROM 9-YEAR PEAK Groundbreaking declined 18.7% last month as winter arrived, with single-family starts down 4.1%. The Census Bureau also reported a 4.7% November decline in building permits.3        DOW ADVANCES, WHILE NASDAQ, S&P 500 RETREAT A relatively calm trading week ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 19,843.41, 0.44% higher than it had closed the previous Friday. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw small weekly losses; the Nasdaq descended 0.13% to 5,437.16, while the S&P declined 0.06% to 2,258.07. Over on the NYMEX, light sweet crude settled at $51.94 a barrel Friday; gold at $1,135.60 an ounce.4 THIS WEEK: Lennar announces Q4 results Monday. CarMax, Darden Restaurants, FedEx, General Mills, Nike, Steelcase, and Valspar all report earnings on Tuesday. Wednesday, investors assess the latest existing home sales numbers and earnings from Accenture, Bed Bath & Beyond, Finish Line, Micron Technology, Red Hat, and Winnebago. Thursday offers new initial claims data, reports on November consumer spending and durable goods orders, the November core PCE price index, the last estimate of Q3 GDP, and earnings from Cintas. Friday brings November new home sales figures and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 2016.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +13.88 +11.80 +13.44 +5.94 NASDAQ +8.58 +7.22 +22.55 +12.13 S&P 500 +10.48 +8.92 +17.03 +5.82 REAL YIELD 12/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.74% 0.84% -0.05% 2.29%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/16/164,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - cnbc.com/2016/12/14/fed-raises-rates-for-the-second-time-in-a-decade.html [12/14/16] 2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2016/12/12-16 [12/16/16] 3 - cnbc.com/2016/12/16/us-housing-starts-nov-2016.html [12/16/16] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F16%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F15%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/16/16] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/16/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/16/16]

Economic update for the week of December 14th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “Art is science made clear.”      - Jean Cocteau            WEEKLY TIP               If you use your own car or truck for business purposes, that vehicle should be insured under a business policy.          WEEKLY RIDDLE             I have roads with no cars, forests with no trees, and cities without people. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: Take away the first four letters of this word, and you have something to sleep on. Replace the last three letters with an L, and you have a month of the year. What is this seven-letter word?       Last week’s answer: Apricot.	December 14, 2016    SERVICE SECTOR LOOKS VERY HEALTHY The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly services index improved 2.4 points in November to a 57.2 reading. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected a small gain to 55.6. It was the PMI’s best reading since October 2015, and it marked the 82nd consecutive month of expansion for the non-manufacturing segment of the economy.1     HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT SOARS Rising 4.2 points to a mark of 98.0, December’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in just a tenth of a point below its most recent (2015) peak. This was one of the index’s three highest readings in the last 12 years. The main reason, in the words of University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin: “More consumers spontaneously mentioned the expected positive impact of new economic policies than ever before recorded in the long history of the surveys.”2     OIL FINISHES THE WEEK WITH A FLOURISH WTI crude advanced 1.22% Friday, reaching $51.46 a barrel as Wall Street ended its trading day. Gold and silver respectively slipped 1.11% and 1.03% on the same day; gold ending the week at $1,159.40 an ounce, and silver, at $16.92 an ounce.3   WILL THE DOW HIT 20,000 BEFORE THE END OF 2016? Investors are starting to wonder. As stocks closed at record highs Friday, the blue chips settled closer to that potential milestone at 19,756.85. The Dow gained 3.06% on the week. Five-day advances for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were even greater. The Nasdaq rose 3.59% to 5,444.50 during the week, while the S&P climbed 3.08% to 2,259.53. When the closing bell rang Friday, the S&P was up 4.39% month-over-month, the CBOE VIX volatility index down 17.08% in a month.3        THIS WEEK: Monday, Verifone Systems announces quarterly results. Nothing notable is slated for Tuesday. The Federal Reserve makes an interest rate decision on Wednesday, and in addition to that, Wall Street will react to the November Producer Price Index, reports on November retail sales and industrial output, and earnings from Pier 1 Imports, Progressive and Worthington Industries. November’s Consumer Price Index, and the latest initial jobless claims report arrive Thursday, as well as earnings from Adobe Systems, Jabil Circuit, Navistar, Oracle, and Rite Aid. Friday, the Census Bureau releases data on November groundbreaking and building permits, and Carnival presents a new earnings report.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +13.38 +12.95 +12.43 +6.05 NASDAQ +8.73 +8.39 +21.15 +12.34 S&P 500 +10.55 +10.35 +16.00 +6.03 REAL YIELD 12/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.51% 0.69% 0.05% 2.21%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/9/163,4,5,6 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/napmserv.htm [12/5/16] 2 - sca.isr.umich.edu/ [12/9/16] 3 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [12/9/16] 5 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/9/16] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/9/16]