Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Economic Update for the week of March 29th, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“I have found that if you love life, life will love you back.”
     
- Arthur Rubinstein
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
Spending three or four dollars a day on energy drinks and other “superfoods” may be unwarranted. A balanced diet could provide you with all the vitamins and nutrients you need, for less money and with less hype.
     
  
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
I am a word of four letters. I begin and end with the same letter. Take my beginning and ending letters away and I am a friendly greeting rather than a place. What word am I?
   

Last week’s riddle:
Marshall is reading a book in his basement when the lights go out. He keeps on reading, even without any light sources. How is he able to keep reading?
     
Last week’s answer:
He is blind, and the book is printed in Braille.



March 29, 2017
   
NEW HOME SALES GO ONE WAY, RESALES ANOTHER
Rising 6.1% in February, new home sales reached a 7-month peak. The Census Bureau said that this gain occurred with just 5.4 months of inventory on the market, less than half that available in 2006 during the height of the last residential real estate boom. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors reported a 3.7% retreat for existing home sales last month, with increasing mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as major factors.1
     
A GAIN FOR DURABLE GOODS ORDERS
A Census Bureau report noted a 1.7% improvement in February, following January’s 2.3% advance. Core hard goods orders did retreat 0.1% last month.2
    
LIGHT SWEET CRUDE BREAKS 4-DAY LOSING STREAK
Friday’s small gain in the price of oil marked the first daily advance for the commodity since March 17. Across March 20-24, crude prices declined 1.7% as news broke of record stockpiles; it was the third losing week for oil in the past month. WTI crude settled at a NYMEX price of $47.97 Friday.3
   
VOLATILITY RETURNS, MAJOR INDICES DECLINE
Investors were less confident last week than they had been in some time. Across five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.52% to 20,596.72; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.22% to 5,828.74; and the S&P 500, 1.44% to 2,343.98. The CBOE VIX gained 14.89% for the week, which still left it down 7.69% for the year.4
  
THIS WEEK: Monday, nothing major is scheduled. Tuesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks at an economic development conference in Washington, D.C., the Conference Board releases its March consumer confidence index, the January S&P/Case-Shiller home price index arrives, and in addition, Wall Street will look at earnings from Carnival, Darden Restaurants, and Sonic. On Wednesday, U.K. prime minister Theresa May is expected to officially trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, formally beginning the Brexit; stateside, the NAR issues its February pending home sales report, complementing earnings news from Lululemon Athletica and Paychex. Thursday brings both a new initial jobless claims report and the third estimate of Q4 growth from the federal government, along with Q4 results from Dell Technologies. Friday offers the University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index, February consumer spending figures, and the latest PCE price index.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+4.22
+17.59
+11.49
+6.50
NASDAQ
+8.28
+22.11
+18.00
+13.80
S&P 500
+4.70
+15.13
+13.55
+6.32
REAL YIELD
3/24 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.42%
0.34%
-0.11%
2.19%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/24/174,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/03/23/u-s-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise-labor-market-still-strong.html [3/23/17]
2 - thestreet.com/story/14057593/1/stock-futures-edge-higher-as-health-care-vote-drama-continues.html [3/24/17]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-breaks-4-day-losing-streak-after-saudis-slash-exports-to-us-2017-03-24/ [3/24/17]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F24%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F24%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F24%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F23%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F23%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F23%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/24/17]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/24/17]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/24/17]

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Economic Update for the week of March 22nd, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“Life is not so important as the duties of life.”
     
- John Randolph
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
Does your will or estate plan take your pets into account? If you have no heirs, or if no heirs or family members want the responsibility of caring for them if you die, provisions should be made on their behalf.
     
  
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Marshall is reading a book in his basement when the lights go out. He keeps on reading, even without any light sources. How is he able to keep reading?
   

Last week’s riddle:
It can brighten any room, yet not take up any space. What is it?
     
Last week’s answer:
Light.



March 22, 2017
   
FED HIKES, LEAVES 2017 FORECAST UNCHANGED
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter-point last week to 0.75-1.00%. “The simple message is, the economy is doing well,” Fed chair Janet Yellen explained to the media following the move. The central bank’s dot-plot table still projects two more rate increases during the balance of 2017, with three rate hikes envisioned for both 2018 and 2019.1
     
INFLATION PRESSURE EASEs
February’s Consumer Price Index displayed only a 0.1% gain, compared to 0.6% in January. Core consumer prices moved 0.2% higher. The small February increase still left the headline CPI up 2.7% in the past 12 months. The Producer Price Index rose 0.3% for February, putting its yearly advance at 2.2%.2
    
SMALL GAINS IN SENTIMENT, RETAIL SALES
The initial March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 97.6 Friday, 1.3 points above its final February mark. Thanks mainly to “improved personal finances” among households, the index’s current economic conditions component hit a 17-year high. A Census Bureau report showed retail purchases up 0.1% in February, 0.2% with car and gasoline buying factored out.2,3
   
CALM WEEK SEES SMALL STOCK MARKET ADVANCE
Wall Street saw the March 15 Federal Reserve policy decision as an affirmation of the economy’s health; equities investors were not at all riled. Ending the week at 5,901.00, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.67% in five days. The S&P 500 rose 0.24% in the same period to settle at 2,378.25 Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.06% across five trading sessions on the way to a Friday close of 20,914.62. Losing 3.26% in five days, the CBOE Volatility Index ended the week at 11.28.4
  
THIS WEEK: Monday, nothing major is scheduled. Earnings announcements from FedEx, General Mills, Lands’ End, Nike, and Steelcase appear Tuesday. Wednesday, Wall Street reviews February existing home sales and earnings reports from Cintas, Five Below, Perry Ellis, and Winnebago. Thursday morning, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers a keynote address at a Fed conference in Washington, D.C.; in addition, investors will eye the latest initial claims report, February’s new home sales report, and earnings news from Accenture, GameStop, KB Home, Micron Technology, Shoe Carnival, and Sportsman’s Warehouse. Friday offers a report on February hard goods orders and Q4 results from Finish Line.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+5.83
+19.64
+11.61
+7.27
NASDAQ
+9.62
+23.58
+18.63
+14.87
S&P 500
+6.23
+16.55
+13.87
+7.15
REAL YIELD
3/17 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.49%
0.34%
-0.09%
2.16%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/17/174,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-a-quarter-point-sees-two-move-moves-this-year-2017-03-15 [3/15/17]
2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [3/17/17]
3 - sca.isr.umich.edu/ [3/17/17]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F17%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F17%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F17%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F16%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F16%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F16%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/17/17]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/17/17]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/17/17]

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Economic Update for the week of March 8th, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE
             
“Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.”
    
- Robert Frost
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
A National Council on Aging website, benefitscheckup.org, has links to many federal, state, and local programs that help retirees save money on medicines, utilities, health care services, and more. Visit the site to see if you are eligible for them.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
           
Michelle threw a softball 30 feet, and it didn’t hit anything and it came back to her. What did she do to make this happen?
   

Last week’s riddle:
They may be sharp and flat, but they may soothe you rather than hurt you. What are they?
     
Last week’s answer:
Musical notes.



March 8, 2017
  
YELLEn: RATE MOVE MAY HAPPEN THIS MONTH
In Chicago Friday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said that if hiring and inflation indicators continue to meet the central bank’s expectations, an interest rate hike “would likely be appropriate” at its March policy meeting. She also noted that, barring unforeseen events, the pace of tightening in the near term “likely will not be as slow as it was during the past couple of years.” After these statements, the Fed futures market put the chance of a March rate increase at 82%.1
    
RISING CONFIDENCE, TEMPERED SPENDING
At a mark of 114.8, the Conference Board consumer confidence index reached its highest point in 14½ years in February. Just 20.3% of Americans found jobs “hard to get,” the smallest percentage in eight years. A Department of Commerce report, however, showed only average consumer spending in January: personal spending rose just 0.2% in that month, and it actually slipped 0.3% when adjusted for inflation. Personal incomes grew by 0.4% in the first month of the year.2,3
    
FACTORIES HUM IN FEBRUARY
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager index rose 1.7 points to 57.7 last month. That was its best reading since August 2014. ISM’s services gauge also improved; it moved north 1.1 points in February to 57.6.3,4
   
HOME VALUES RISE NEARLY 6% in 12 MONTHS
December’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city house price index showed a 5.8% yearly gain in home appreciation. In the November edition, the advance was 5.6%.4
      
ANOTHER DOW MILESTONE
The Dow Industrials closed above 21,000 for the first time last week, adding 0.88% across five days to settle at 21,005.71 Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.67% for the week to 2,383,12; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.44% to 5,870.75.5
 
THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from Analogic, Casey’s General Stores, and Thor Industries. Tuesday, investors consider quarterly results from Alamo Group, Dick’s Sporting Goods, H&R Block, Navistar, and Urban Outfitters. Wednesday sees the release of ADP’s February payrolls report and earnings from Bob Evans Farms, Hovnanian, Stein Mart, and Valspar. The latest initial unemployment claims figures appear Thursday, plus earnings from El Pollo Loco, Real Goods Solar, Smith Micro, and Verifone. Friday offers the February jobs report from the Department of Labor and Q4 results from Kirkland’s.
 
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+6.29
+23.97
+12.37
+7.34
NASDAQ
+9.06
+24.71
+19.45
+14.79
S&P 500
+6.44
+19.55
+14.80
+7.18
REAL YIELD
3/3 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.45%
0.30%
-0.24%
2.15%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/3/175,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/03/yellen-signals-likely-rate-hike-march-meeting/98657322/ [3/3/17]
2 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-hits-15-year-high-2017-02-24 [2/28/17]
3 - cnbc.com/2017/03/01/us-personal-income-jan-2017.html [3/1/17]
4 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [3/3/17]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F3%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F3%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F3%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F2%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F2%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F2%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/3/17]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/3/17]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/3/17]