Economic Update for the week of August 25th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Only the mediocre are always at their best.”       - Jean Giraudoux            WEEKLY TIP               Starting up a business? Talk to a CPA to determine the tax benefits you might be eligible for and the expenses you may be able to itemize.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              I am a port city in Canada, a state in southeast Australia, a big lake in Africa, and a renowned queen. What is my name?     Last week’s riddle: It grows down, yet it also grows up. What is it?     Last week’s answer: A goose.	August 25, 2015                         CHINA DATA, CRUDE PRICES DRIVE MAJOR SELLOFF Fierce headwinds hit Wall Street last week. A report showed that Chinese factory activity hit a 6-year low in July, raising serious doubts about whether that country’s economy was still maintaining 7% annual growth. (The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3% Friday and 11% for the week.) Friday, WTI crude dipped under $40 before settling at $40.45 on the NYMEX; oil is on an 8-week losing streak.) Under such pressure, U.S. stocks had their poorest week of the year: in five days, the Dow fell 5.82% to 16,459.75, the Nasdaq 6.78% to 4,706.04 and the S&P 500 5.77% to 1,970.89. The CBOE VIX soared 40% last week to a Friday close of 26.81.1,2 EXISTING HOME SALES AT AN 8-YEAR PEAK New National Association of Realtors data showed 2.0% more resales in July and a yearly gain of 10.3%, with the annualized sales pace at its hottest since February 2007. July also saw single-family housing starts rise 12.8%. Total starts were up just 0.2%, however, and the Census Bureau measured a 16.3% dip for building permits.3   LATEST CPI SHOWS MINIMAL INFLATION PRESSURE In July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index rose only 0.1%. That was half the gain projected by analysts in a Briefing.com consensus forecast. In June, consumer prices were up 0.3% with core CPI rising 0.2%.4      JULY FED MINUTES: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A RATE HIKE Minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting released last week showed no apparent consensus about raising short-term interest rates, with some Federal Reserve officials leaning against an increase because of muted U.S. inflation and slowing overseas economies and others wishing to proceed. Wall Street was left a bit less certain about the long-assumed September rate move.5              THIS WEEK: Stateside, nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, the Conference Board’s August consumer confidence index comes out, along with the June S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, July new home sales data and earnings from Best Buy, DSW, Toll Bros., and Valspar. A report on July durable goods orders arrives Wednesday, plus earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Chico’s, Express, Tilly’s, and Williams-Sonoma. The second federal government estimate of Q2 GDP appears Thursday, plus NAR’s July pending home sales index, a new initial claims report and earnings from Aeropostale, Autodesk, Burlington Stores, Dollar General, Fred’s, GameStop, J.M. Smucker, Smith & Wesson, and Tiffany. Friday brings the final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, July personal spending figures and earnings results from Regis Corp. and Big Lots.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -7.65 -3.40 +12.23 +5.57 NASDAQ -0.63 +3.84 +23.18 +11.98 S&P 500 -4.27 -1.08 +16.78 +6.13 REAL YIELD 8/21 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.52% 0.24% 1.05% 1.86%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/21/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - thestreet.com/story/13263507/1/stocks-end-brutal-week-as-market-nears-correction.html [8/21/15] 2 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [8/21/15] 3 - usnews.com/news/slideshows/5-things-to-know-about-the-economy-this-week-8-21-2015 [8/21/15] 4 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/08/17-21 [8/21/15] 5 - money.cnn.com/2015/08/21/investing/stocks-market-lookahead-august-21/index.html [8/21/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F21%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F20%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F22%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/21/15]             8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/21/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/21/15]

Economic Update for the week of August 18th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “The family is the country of the heart.”       - Giuseppe Mazzini            WEEKLY TIP               Marrying soon? Just married? If you are good with money and your spouse is not, your ability to pay the bills from a joint checking or savings account may one day be impeded. Think about maintaining a separate savings or checking account for yourself; that may even help your credit rating.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              It grows down, yet it also grows up. What is it?     Last week’s riddle: There is a 7-letter word that starts with BR and ends in G, and if you put an E in it, you get an 8-letter word that sounds the same yet has a different meaning. Name these two words.       Last week’s answer: Braking and breaking.	August 18, 2015                         SHOPPERS SPEND MORE IN JULY Retail sales rose 0.6% last month according to Commerce Department data, topping the 0.5% gain projected in a Briefing.com poll of economists. This was great news after the flat June reading (which was initially recorded as an 0.3% decline).1   A SLIGHT DIP IN HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT Falling 0.2 points to a mark of 92.9, the initial August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index nearly matched the 92.8 reading projected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Although this was the index’s second-lowest reading of 2015, it was still 10.4 points above where it was a year earlier.2,3      WHOLESALE INFLATION INCREASED IN JULY The Labor Department reported a 0.2% gain for the Producer Price Index last month, following the 0.4% advance in June. The core PPI also rose 0.2% in July. Annualized wholesale inflation was still at -0.8% through July thanks to falling energy prices. U.S. automakers boosted production 10.6% in July, leading to the 0.6% rise in overall industrial output reported by the Federal Reserve.3      WALL STREET HOLDS UP AFTER YUAN WEAKENS China devalued its currency for three straight days last week, but U.S. equities withstood that surprise. The S&P 500 advanced 0.68% for the week to 2,091.54, the Nasdaq 0.09% to 5,048.24 and the Dow 0.61% to 17,477.40. The devalued yuan certainly helped gold – the yellow metal had its best week in almost a month, rising 1.7% on the COMEX to a Friday close of $1,112.70. Light sweet crude, on the other hand, declined another 3.1% to a Friday NYMEX settlement of $42.50.3,4,5            THIS WEEK: Monday, Q2 results arrive from Estee Lauder and Urban Outfitters. Tuesday, July housing starts and building permits reports accompany earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, La-Z-Boy, TJX, and Walmart. Minutes from the July FOMC policy meeting appear Wednesday, along with July’s CPI, and earnings from American Eagle Outfitters, Hormel, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, Popeye’s, Staples, and Target. Thursday brings NAR’s report on July existing home sales, new initial jobless claims numbers, the Conference Board’s July LEI, and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Fresh Market, Gap, Hewlett-Packard, Kirkland’s, Perry Ellis, Regis Corp., Ross Stores, Salesforce, Stein Mart, Stage Stores, Intuit, Sears Holdings, and Toro. Friday offers Q2 results from Deere and Foot Locker.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -1.94 +4.57 +13.93 +6.43 NASDAQ +6.59 +13.37 +26.45 +13.30 S&P 500 +1.59 +6.97 +18.76 +6.95 REAL YIELD 8/14 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.58% 0.19% 0.95% 1.92%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/14/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/08/10-14 [8/14/15] 2 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-edged-lower-in-august-reports-say-2015-08-14 [8/14/15] 3 - thestreet.com/story/13256747/1/stocks-close-week-with-gains-despite-signs-of-fed-hike.html [8/14/15] 4 - proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/62973/gold-drops-03-to-111270-wti-rises-06-to-4250barrel-62973.html [8/14/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F14%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F14%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F14%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F13%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F13%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F13%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/14/15]             7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/14/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/14/15]

Economic Update for the week of August 11th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “The greatest good you can do for another is not just share your riches, but to reveal to him his own.”       - Benjamin Disraeli            WEEKLY TIP               Encourage your children to start off on the right financial footing: tell them to save 10% of what they make.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              There is a 7-letter word that starts with BR and ends in G, and if you put an E in it, you get an 8-letter word that sounds the same yet has a different meaning. Name these two words.     Last week’s riddle: Simply talk about it, and you will break it. What is it?       Last week’s answer: Silence.	August 11, 2015                         A GREEN LIGHT FOR A RATE HIKE? According to the latest Labor Department report, employers hired 215,000 new workers in July – 77,000 of them in professional, business, education, and health care occupations. The jobless rate held steady at 5.3% while the U-6 rate (unemployment + underemployment) ticked down to 10.4%. Monthly hiring totals have averaged 235,000 since May compared to 195,000 in Q1, and even with continued lackluster wage growth, some analysts see a stronger argument for the Federal Reserve to adjust short-term interest rates next month.1   PERSONAL SPENDING IMPROVED 0.2% IN JUNE This minor gain followed the 0.7% increase measured by the Commerce Department for May. Personal wages, however, rose 0.4% in June. A consensus MarketWatch forecast had both indicators advancing 0.3%.2      ISM SERVICE SECTOR PMI REACHES HISTORIC PEAK With 15 of 18 service fields reporting growth, the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI rose 4.3 points to reach 60.3 in July, the highest mark in its 7-year history. ISM’s factory PMI lost 0.8 points in July, slipping to 52.7. Better news emerged from the manufacturing sector, however: the Commerce Department noted a 1.8% gain for factory orders in June.2,3      A DOWN WEEK FOR STOCKS The July employment report did little to ease concerns that the Fed might raise interest rates in September. That factor and some earnings disappointments sent the major indices south last week. Across August 3-7, the DJIA lost 1.79% to fall to 17,373.38. The S&P 500 slipped 1.25% in that time span to settle at 2,077.57 while the Nasdaq fell 1.65% to 5,043.54. Oil’s grim summer continued as futures lost 6.33% on the NYMEX for the week on the way to a Friday close of $43.81. Gold declined 0.28% for the week, settling Friday at $1,091.80 on the COMEX.4,5            THIS WEEK: Dean Foods, Live Nation, Shake Shack, and Take-Two Interactive report earnings Monday. Tuesday, the Street eyes Q2 results from Fossil, Red Robin, and Symantec. On Wednesday, earnings arrive from News Corp., Alibaba, Aramark, Cisco, and Macy’s. Thursday, July retail sales figures and a new initial jobless claims report complement earnings from Advance Auto Parts, Applied Materials, Dillard’s, El Pollo Loco, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, and Tribune Media. The initial August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the July Producer Price Index appear Friday, along with a report on July industrial output, and Q2 results from JCPenney.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -2.52 +6.14 +12.62 +6.49 NASDAQ +6.49 +16.35 +24.08 +13.30 S&P 500 +0.91 +8.80 +17.05 +6.99 REAL YIELD 8/7 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.52% 0.19% 1.04% 2.02%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/7/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-215000-jobs-in-july-setting-stage-for-rate-hikes-2015-08-07 [8/7/15] 2 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [8/7/15] 3 - usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/08/05/growth-at-us-services-firms-surges-to-record-in-july [8/5/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [8/7/15] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/commodities/commodities.asp [8/7/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F7%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F7%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F7%2F14&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/7/15]                8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/7/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/7/15]