Economic Update for the week of February 23rd, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “A hunch is creativity trying to tell you something.”       - Frank Capra            WEEKLY TIP               Every two years, you should check to see if your retirement strategy needs adjusting in light of life events and changing goals.           WEEKLY RIDDLE              Everywhere on earth I am found, I should not make you frown, I will always bring you down, but I will never send you up. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: Switch one letter each from the words “plus” and “minus” to the other word, and you have two entirely new words. What are they?       Last week’s answer: Plum and sinus.	February 23, 2016     WALL STREET HAS ITS BEST WEEK OF 2016 Across four trading days, the S&P 500 rose 2.84% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 2.62%; the Nasdaq Composite beat them both with a 3.85% gain. The Friday settlements: Dow Jones, 16,391.99; Nasdaq, 4,504.43; S&P, 1,917.78. WTI crude settled at $29.64 on the NYMEX Friday and gold at $1,230.80 on the COMEX.1     WHOLESALE PRICES OUTPACE CONSUMER PRICES Core producer prices rose o.4% in January according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with the headline Producer Price Index up 0.1%. The Consumer Price Index was flat in January, with the core index up 0.3%; core consumer prices rose  2.2% across the 12 months ending in January.2    BUILDERS STARTED FEWER PROJECTS LAST MONTH January saw a 0.2% decline in building permits and a 3.8% dip in housing starts. Permits are still outpacing starts, so both Commerce Department indicators could see gains in February.3        INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IMPROVES 0.9% IN JANUARY This was the largest monthly increase reported by the Federal Reserve since November 2014, and it included a 0.5% advance for the manufacturing sector. Prior to January, five months had passed without a gain in industrial production.3     THIS WEEK: Wall Street looks at earnings from Allergan, Dillard’s, Fitbit, Motorola Solutions, and Republic Airways on Monday. January existing home sales figures, the December Case-Shiller home price index, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index appear Tuesday, plus earnings from Avis Budget Group, Cablevision, Cracker Barrel, Dollar Tree, HealthSouth, Home Depot, J.M. Smucker, Macy’s, Office Depot, Papa John’s, Popeye’s, and Toll Bros. Wednesday sees January new home sales numbers and earnings from Chesapeake Energy, Etsy, L Brands, La Quinta Holdings, Lowe’s, NetEase, Sunoco, Target, TJX, and Transocean. Thursday offers reports on initial claims and January capital goods orders, plus earnings from AMC Networks, Baidu, Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Domino’s, Gap, Health Net, Healthways, Icahn Enterprises, iHeart Media, Ingram Micro, Intuit, Kohl’s, Kraft Heinz, Live Nation, Monster Beverage, Pinnacle Foods, Sears Holdings, Palo Alto Networks, and Sprouts. January personal spending figures, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and the University of Michigan’s final January consumer sentiment index arrive Friday, plus earnings from Berkshire Hathaway, Foot Locker, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, J.C. Penney, KBR, and Sempra Energy.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -5.93 -8.86 +6.46 +4.81 NASDAQ -10.04 -8.53 +11.79 +9.91 S&P 500 -6.17 -8.57 +8.56 +4.95 REAL YIELD 2/19 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.50% 0.37% 1.25% 2.03%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/19/164,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - cnbc.com/2016/02/19/us-markets.html [2/19/16] 2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [2/19/16] 3 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0VQ1NV [2/17/16] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F18%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F21%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F21%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F21%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/19/16]              6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/19/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/19/16]

Economic Update for the week of February 16th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Laughter is the closest distance between two people.”       - Victor Borge            WEEKLY TIP               Some people moonlight for extra income, but getting that second job may just be a response to uncontrolled spending. Added income will not correct that problem; it may even encourage it.           WEEKLY RIDDLE              Switch one letter each from the words “plus” and “minus” to the other word, and you have two entirely new words. What are they?    Last week’s riddle: When you lack me, you feel a sort of gloom. When you use me, it is time you consume. What am I?       Last week’s answer: Sleep.	February 16, 2016     OIL JUMPS 12%, BUT STOCKS RETREAT FOR THE WEEK On Friday, WTI crude closed at a NYMEX price of $29.44 after a 12.32% surge. However, it fell 4.69% on the week, and major U.S. stock benchmarks fell as well. Across five days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.43% to 15,973.84; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.58% to 4,337.51; and the S&P 500, 1.95% to 1,864.78. Gold closed Friday at $1,239.00 on the COMEX, capping its best week since 2008 and its first four-week win streak since last April.1,2     BETTER NEWS ABOUT RETAIL SALES Commerce Department data showed retail purchases increasing 0.2% last month, with impressive 0.6% growth for core retail sales (a category excluding auto, home improvement, and restaurant purchases). The 0.1% pullback in headline retail sales in December was revised to a 0.2% advance.3    A HINT OF CONSUMER PESSIMISM The University of Michigan’s initial February consumer sentiment index displayed a 90.7 reading compared to 92.0 at the end of January. Its future expectations component fell 1.7 points to a 6-month low, a major reason for the decline.3        MORTGAGE RATES REACH 10-MONTH LOW On February 11, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average interest rate on a 30-year home loan at 3.65%, moving lower for the sixth straight week. The recent rush to Treasuries by investors has helped keep rates low. Last week, the average interest for the 15-year fixed rate home loan was 2.95%.4       THIS WEEK: Monday is Presidents Day, so U.S. financial markets will be closed. On Tuesday, Cheesecake Factory, Dean Foods, Express Scripts, Fossil Group, Hormel, Kaiser Aluminum, and Public Storage announce earnings. Minutes from the January Federal Reserve policy meeting arrive Wednesday, along with the January PPI, reports on January housing starts, building permits and industrial output, and earnings from Denny’s, Domino’s, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Gannett, Jack in the Box, Garmin, La-Z-Boy, Marathon Oil, Marriott, Newmont Mining, Noble Energy, Nvidia, NetApp, Priceline, Progressive, and T-Mobile. Thursday, new initial claims figures arrive along with earnings from America's Car-Mart, Applied Materials, Cabela’s, BJ’s Restaurants, Boise-Cascade, Choice Hotels, DISH Network, Duke Energy, Fluor, Hyatt Hotels, MGM Resorts, Six Flags Entertainment, Novatel Wireless, Nordstrom, Starwood Hotels & Resorts, Virgin America, and Wal-Mart. The January CPI will be out Friday, along with quarterly results from Deere & Co.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -8.33 -11.12 +6.03 +4.67 NASDAQ -13.38 -10.71 +10.88 +9.37 S&P 500 -8.77 -10.71 +8.06 +4.77 REAL YIELD 2/12 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.49% 0.33% 1.36% 2.08%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/12/162,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/02/12/wall-street-surges-but-caps-week-in-red.html [2/12/16] 2 - markets.wsj.com/us [2/12/16] 3 - investors.com/news/economy/retail-sales-looked-stronger-in-january-as-consumer-stays-solid/ [2/12/16] 4 - usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2016/02/11/mortgage-rates-housing-freddie-mac/80231032/ [2/11/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F11%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/12/16]              6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/12/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/12/16]

Economic Update for the week of February 9th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face.”       - Eleanor Roosevelt            WEEKLY TIP               If you want to leave some of your IRA to your children, a Roth IRA conversion may be a great idea: the IRA they inherit could realize further tax-free growth.     WEEKLY RIDDLE              When you lack me, you feel a sort of gloom. When you use me, it is time you consume. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: Karen parks her car beside a hotel and instantly recognizes that she is bankrupt. How does she know this?       Last week’s answer: She is playing Monopoly.	February 9, 2016     UNEMPLOYMENT NOW BELOW 5% Although the economy added just 151,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department’s latest employment report also showed a reduction in the headline jobless rate to 4.9%. The broader U-6 measure of underemployment remained at 9.9%. Monthly payroll gains have averaged 231,000 since November; in fact, the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month job creation averages are now all above 200,000.1     CONSUMER SPENDING FLATTENED IN DECEMBER Personal incomes rose 0.3% in the final month of 2015, but the Commerce Department recorded no corresponding personal spending advance. The good news? The personal savings rate reached 5.5%, a 3-year high.2    MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWN CONTINUES The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index for the factory sector came in at 48.2 for January, 0.2 points higher than the previous reading, but still well under the 50 mark. U.S. manufacturing has now contracted for four straight months. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI dipped 2.3 points in January, but still showed expansion at 53.5.2,3        OIL PRICES & STOCK INDICES DECLINE Oil closed Friday at $30.89 on the NYMEX, down 8.1% in five days. That and earnings disappointments lead to sizable weekly descents: the Dow lost 1.59% to 16,204.83; the Nasdaq, 5.44% to 4,363.14; the S&P 500, 3.10% to 1,880.02.4,5       THIS WEEK: Hasbro, Lennox International, Loews, 21st Century Fox, and Yelp announce earnings Monday. Tuesday, earnings news arrives from Akamai, Baidu, Coca-Cola, CVS Health, Goodyear, Ingersoll-Rand, Martin Marietta, NCR, Panera, Spirit Airlines, Viacom, Walt Disney Co., WellCare, Wendy’s, Western Union, and Wyndham Worldwide. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen begins two days of testimony on monetary policy in Congress Wednesday; investors will keep an eye on that and earnings from Aramark, Cisco, Expedia, Humana, iRobot, LifeLock, LoJack, O'Reilly Automotive, Omega Healthcare, Owens Corning, Tesla Motors, Time Warner, Twitter, Whole Foods, and Zynga. Thursday brings earnings from Activision Blizzard, Avon, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Diebold, Groupon, Huntsman, Invacare, Kellogg, Molson Coors, Pandora, Peabody Energy, Penske, PepsiCo, TripAdvisor, Verisign, Vonage, and W.R. Grace, in addition to initial claims figures. Friday, the University of Michigan’s initial February consumer sentiment index appears, plus January retail sales figures and earnings from ITT and Red Robin.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -7.00 -9.39 +6.80 +5.01 NASDAQ -12.87 -8.44 +11.51 +9.32 S&P 500 -8.02 -8.85 +8.68 +4.86 REAL YIELD 2/5 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.53% 0.13% 1.30% 2.00%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/5/166,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2016/02/05/mixed-jobs-report-151000-jobs-added-in-january-unemployment-rate-down-to-4-9/ [2/5/16] 2 - nytimes.com/2016/02/02/business/economy/factory-activity-falls-for-4th-straight-month-but-construction-edges-up.html [2/2/16] 3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2016/02/01-05 [2/5/16] 4 - marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-steady-as-a-weak-dollar-lends-support-2016-02-05/ [2/5/16] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [2/5/16] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F5%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F5%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F5%2F15&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F4%2F11&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/5/16] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/5/16] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/5/16]