Economic Update for the week of March 28th, 2018

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Knowledge is the eye of desire and can become the pilot of the soul.”       - Will Durant            WEEKLY TIP               If it feels like your federal student loan debt is holding you back from saving enough for the future, think about switching to an income-based repayment plan, which could cap your loan payments at no more than 10% of your income and free up more money you could contribute to retirement accounts.       WEEKLY RIDDLE              There are 43 hikers walking toward a desert peak. On the way, 6 decide to hike another peak, 12 head back, and 25 make it to the peak. What happens to the rest of them?     Last week’s riddle: It has two rings. It moves upon request. If a mixture is not right, it simply sits and rests. What is it?       Last week’s answer: A piston.	March 28, 2018     TRADE WAR POSSIBILITY WEIGHS ON STOCKS Last week, the U.S. imposed excise taxes on steel and aluminum imported from select countries and announced that up to $60 billion of Chinese imports would also soon face tariffs. These protectionist moves weakened bullish sentiment on Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell steadily Thursday and Friday and had its worst week since 2016, slipping 5.95% to 2,588.26; the Dow Industrials sank 5.67% on the week to 23,533.20. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 6,992.67, down 6.54% for the week.1,2      FED MAKES ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE MOVE OF 2018 After Federal Reserve officials voted to increase the target range on the federal funds rate by 0.25% to the 1.50-1.75% level Thursday, their dot-plot forecast showed no change in the pace of tightening planned for this year. Three hikes are projected for 2019 and two more in 2020. In succession, the increases envisioned for 2018-20 could leave rates near 3.4% by the final quarter of 2020.3    EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASE New National Association of Realtors data shows that the sales pace improved 3.0% in February. That left resales 1.1% higher, year-over-year. The same cannot be said for new home purchases: they fell 0.6% last month according to the Census Bureau, leaving the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate at its weakest level since October.4,5     MEANWHILE, OIL SURGES WTI crude staged a major rally last week, jumping up 5.6% to close Friday at $65.74 a barrel on the NYMEX. With equities under pressure, gold also gained more allure: prices rose 0.8% across five days to $1,352.90 on the COMEX.2,6       THIS WEEK: Monday, Paychex and Red Hat report earnings. On Tuesday, the Conference Board presents its March consumer confidence index; the Street also considers earnings from Lululemon Athletica, Restoration Hardware, Shoe Carnival, and Sonic. Wednesday, investors await the third Q4 GDP estimate, the February pending home sales index from the NAR, and earnings announcements from Blackberry, GameStop, Hudson’s Bay Co., and Walgreens Boots Alliance. February personal spending numbers, the final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and Q4 results from Constellation Brands appear Thursday. Nothing major is scheduled for Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -4.80 +13.93 +12.43 +8.75 NASDAQ +1.29 +20.20 +23.10 +20.05 S&P 500 -3.19 +10.33 +13.25 +9.17 REAL YIELD 3/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.75% 0.46% -0.60% 1.24%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/23/181,2,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - nytimes.com/2018/03/23/business/trade-tariffs-markets-stocks-bonds.html [3/23/18] 2 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/23/18] 3 - marketwatch.com/story/fed-lifts-rates-in-powells-first-meeting-says-outlook-has-strengthened-2018-03-21 [3/21/18] 4 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales [3/23/18] 5 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales [3/23/18] 6 - quotes.wsj.com/futures/CRUDE%20OIL%20-%20ELECTRONIC [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F23%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F23%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F23%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/23/18] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/23/18] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/23/18]

Economic Update for the week of March 21st, 2018

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “One person with a belief is equal to a force of 99 who have only interests.”       - John Stuart Mill            WEEKLY TIP               Are you worried that long-term care expenses might eat up your parents’ financial resources? Urge them to develop a plan for funding their health care needs through insurance products or other resources.       WEEKLY RIDDLE              It has two rings. It moves upon request. If a mixture is not right, it simply sits and rests. What is it?     Last week’s riddle: Nate gets messages every day from people who want his services, yet he gets paid when he drives away his customers. What does he do for a living?       Last week’s answer: He is a rideshare driver.	March 21, 2018     price gains EasE There was no half-percent spike in inflation in February. In contrast to January’s big jump, the headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in the second month of 2018, with the core CPI following suit; the year-over-year CPI gain ticked slightly higher to 2.2%. The headline and core Producer Price Index also increased 0.2% last month; yearly wholesale inflation rose just 0.1% to 2.8%.1       THE CONSUMER IS CONFIDENT Displaying a preliminary March reading of 102.0, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index reached a 14-year peak last week. Analysts polled by Reuters expected the gauge to decline 0.6 points to 99.3. As for consumer habits, the Department of Commerce just noted a 0.1% retreat for retail sales in February; sales advanced 0.3% with gas and auto buying factored out.1,2    RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION FLAGS Overall housing starts fell 7.0% last month, according to the Census Bureau. The silver lining: groundbreaking on single-family projects increased 2.9%. Building permits decreased 5.7%.3     INVESTORS SELL AS THEY WAIT ON THE FED During the trading week before the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, all three major Wall Street benchmarks staged retreats. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.04% across the week to 7,481.99; the S&P 500 fell 1.24% to 2,752.01. Blue chips took the biggest hit: the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.54% lower for the week, slipping to 24,946.51 Friday. Rising 6.56% in five days, the CBOE VIX concluded the week at 15.60.4       THIS WEEK: Oracle announces quarterly results on Monday. Tuesday, FedEx and Steelcase present earnings. Wednesday, investors anticipate an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve; in addition to the Fed’s latest policy announcement, the news stream also includes February existing home sales and earnings from Five Below, General Mills, Guess, and Winnebago. Thursday, Wall Street reviews new initial jobless claims figures and earnings news from Accenture, BP Midstream Partners, Carnival, Cintas, ConAgra Brands, Darden Restaurants, KB Home, Lands’ End, Michaels Companies, Micron Technology, and Nike. On Friday, reports on February hard goods orders and new home sales arrive.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.92 +19.16 +14.38 +10.84 NASDAQ +8.38 +26.80 +26.06 +24.37 S&P 500 +2.93 +15.56 +15.27 +11.56 REAL YIELD 3/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.77% 0.51% -0.55% 1.05%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/16/184,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [3/16/18] 2 - cnbc.com/2018/03/16/march-consumer-sentiment.html [3/16/18] 3 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/u-s-housing-starts-cooled-in-february-after-robust-january [3/16/18] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F16%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F15%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/16/18] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/16/18] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/16/18]

Economic Update for the week of March 15th, 2018

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Focusing is about saying no.”       - Steve Jobs            WEEKLY TIP               Small business budgeting includes defining your risks. As a first step, detail your monthly, guaranteed income and expenses to help determine your level of liquidity. This may help you recognize potential long-term and short-term risks.       WEEKLY RIDDLE              Nate gets messages every day from people who want his services, yet he gets paid when he drives away his customers. What does he do for a living?     Last week’s riddle: It can hold back cattle, pets, and even people, but never with an order or a command. What is it?       Last week’s answer: A fence.	March 15,   2018     FEBRUARY SAW A HIRING SURGE Payroll growth was truly impressive last month. According to the latest Department of Labor report, employers added 313,000 net new jobs, including 61,000 in the construction industry; economists polled by Reuters projected a total February gain of 200,000. With the labor force participation rate reaching a 6-month high, the headline jobless rate stayed at 4.1% and the broader U-6 rate at 8.2%. Yearly wage growth declined to 2.6%.1     SERVICE BUSINESSES ARE THRIVING The Institute for Supply Management’s February snapshot of service industry growth was quite positive. ISM’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index did wane slightly, losing 0.4 points to 59.5, but the reading shows a very healthy service sector. January’s 59.9 mark was the best seen since August 2005.2    WTI CRUDE TOPS $62 As Wall Street’s closing bell sounded Friday, oil settled at $62.04. A 3% Friday gain left the commodity up for the week, even after the Energy Information Agency said that daily U.S. output had increased to nearly 10.4 million barrels, a record.3     FRIDAY RALLY ENDS BULLISH WEEK A strong jobs report surpassed forecasts, and the dip in annualized wage growth hinted at manageable inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 441 points Friday. The blue chips gained 3.25% in five days to wrap up the week at 25,335.74. Across five trading sessions, the S&P 500 rose 3.54% to 2,786.57, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 4.17% to 7,560.81 – a new record close for that tech-heavy benchmark.4,5        THIS WEEK: Nothing major is slated for Monday. February’s Consumer Price Index arrives Tuesday, plus quarterly results from Dick’s Sporting Goods and DSW. Investors consider reports on February retail sales and wholesale inflation on Wednesday, along with earnings news from Del Taco, Smart & Final, Smith Micro, Stein Mart, Tailored Brands, and Williams-Sonoma. Wall Street looks at new initial claims figures Thursday, and earnings from Broadcom Ltd., Dollar General, Jabil, and Lifetime Brands. On Friday, the Census Bureau releases data on February housing starts and building permits, the University of Michigan publishes its preliminary March consumer sentiment index, and Kirkland’s, Perry Ellis, and Tiffany & Co. make earnings announcements.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +2.49 +21.47 +15.20 +11.58 NASDAQ +9.52 +29.49 +26.61 +24.85 S&P 500 +4.22 +17.83 +15.93 +11.88 REAL YIELD 3/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.78% 0.60% -0.50% 0.90%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/9/184,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - cnbc.com/2018/03/09/nonfarm-payrolls-february.html [3/9/18] 2 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/napmserv.htm [3/9/18] 3 - investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices-settle-higher-as-us-oil-rigs-fall-for-first-time-in-7-weeks-1334831 [3/9/18] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [3/9/18] 5 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-tech-stocks/high-performance-u-s-tech-stocks-drive-nasdaq-to-record-high-idUSKCN1GL2QC [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F9%2F17&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F8%2F13&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F10%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/9/18] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/9/18] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/9/18]