In this week’s recap: a gain in existing home sales, a dip
for consumer sentiment, more pain for the oil sector, and more losses for the
big three.
Weekly Economic Update
Presented by Troy L Thompson, CFP, November 27, 2018
SUDDENLY,
MORE HOMES SELL
Existing home sales improved in
October for the first time in seven months. The National Association of
Realtors announced a 1.4% monthly increase, while also noting that the
annualized sales pace was 5.1% slower than it had been 12 months earlier.
Across the year ending in October, the median sales price for an existing home
rose 3.8%. There were 4.3 months of housing inventory listed last month,
corresponding to the definition of a “tight” market among real estate
professionals.1
AT
THANKSGIVING, CONSUMER SENTIMENT WEAKENS
In its final November edition, the University of Michigan’s
consumer sentiment index fell to a mark of 97.5, 1.1 points under its final
October level. Analysts polled by Refinitiv anticipated a reading of 98.3. In
March, the gauge reached a 14-year peak of 101.4; it has trended downward
since.2
WHEN
WILL OIL RECOVER?
Next week? Next month? Last week, the commodity lost value again,
slumping 7.7% on Friday alone (albeit in thin, post-Thanksgiving trading) to a
NYMEX settlement of $50.42. That left light sweet crude 34% below its close on
October 3. Oil industry analysts widely believe that OPEC will announce supply
cuts at its December 6 meeting.3
A
SHORT WEEK BRINGS SIGNIFICANT DESCENTS
Oil’s troubles also affected equities, which were already hindered
by investor pessimism in the days near Thanksgiving. The S&P 500 stumbled
3.79% across an abbreviated trading week, down to 2,632.56 at Friday’s closing
bell. Thanksgiving week also saw the Dow Industrials slide 4.44% to 24,285.95. The
Nasdaq Composite lost 4.26% in three-and-a-half trading
sessions to fall to 6,938.98.4
T I P O F
T H E W E E K
If your college student has a chance to enter a work-study program, you may worry that the part-time job and the course load will prove too much to handle. Most work-study programs set reasonable limits on the hours students work, however, and the job experience can help build your student’s resume.
THIS WEEK
On Monday, nothing major is scheduled. | The
Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index appears Tuesday, plus
earnings from Cracker Barrel, Salesforce, and Stein Mart. | Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a speech on monetary policy in New York on Wednesday,
shortly before the closing bell; investors will also interpret the latest new
home sales report from the Census Bureau, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and
earnings news from Burlington Stores, Chico’s FAS, Dick’s Sporting Goods,
Guess, La-Z-Boy, J.M. Smucker, and Sportsman's Warehouse. | Thursday, minutes
from the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting arrive, along with October
consumer spending figures, the NAR’s October pending home sales report, a new
initial jobless claims report, and earnings from Abercrombie, Dell
Technologies, Dollar Tree, Express, GameStop, HP, Kirkland’s, and TD Bank. | Friday,
the G20 summit starts in Buenos Aires, and with it, the possibility of renewed
trade talks between the U.S. and China.
Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K
“Sometimes
the questions are complicated, and
the answers are simple.”
Theodore Seuss geisel
|
%
CHANGE
|
Y-T-D
|
1-YR
CHG
|
5-YR
AVG
|
10-YR
AVG
|
|
DJIA
|
-1.75
|
3.09
|
10.24
|
18.76
|
|
NASDAQ
|
0.52
|
0.72
|
14.77
|
37.14
|
|
S&P
500
|
-1.54
|
1.16
|
9.17
|
20.91
|
|
REAL
YIELD
|
11/23
RATE
|
1 YR
AGO
|
5 YRS
AGO
|
10
YRS AGO
|
|
10 YR TIPS
|
1.09
|
0.50
|
0.56
|
3.11
|
Sources: ft.com, bigcharts.com,
treasury.gov - 11/23/185,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or
expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include
dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given
expected inflation.
T H E W E E K L Y
R I D D L E
LAST
WEEK’S RIDDLE: What goes back and forth all the time while keeping time,
causing a bit of noise only some of the time?
ANSWER:
A pendulum.
Troy L Thompson, CFP may be
reached at 515-432-5421 or troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com
www.thompsonfinancialinc.com
www.thompsonfinancialinc.com
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Troy Thompson, CFP
DBA: Thompson Financial, Inc.
and Hanson Asset Strategies
Securities offered through
FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC.
Member FINRA & SIPC.
Thompson Financial is not affiliated with
FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC.
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does
not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their
affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be
accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may
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Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot
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not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a
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Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency
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CITATIONS:
1 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-for-first-time-in-seven-months
[11/21/18]
3 - cnbc.com/2018/11/23/oil-prices-slump-to-their-lowest-level-of-2018-even-as-opec-considers-cuts.html
[11/23/18]
4 - markets.ft.com/data/world
[11/23/18]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F24%2F17&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F22%2F13&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/23/18]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0
[11/23/18]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/23/18]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/23/18]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/23/18]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/23/18]
