Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Economic Update for the week of December 29th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“No one is ready for a thing until he believes he can acquire it.”
     
- Napoleon Hill
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
Before 2016 begins, take a look at your spending patterns. Which expenses are necessary, which less so? In reviewing them, you could spot opportunities to save money next year.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
They are found around the world, attached to ground. They lack mouths, yet they enjoy a light meal each day. What are they?

   
Last week’s riddle:
Normally flat and often inscribed, it can fall off the tallest building and land unscathed, but it can fall off a kayak or raft and be ruined. What is it? 
     
Last week’s answer:
A piece of paper.




December 29, 2015
   
CONSUMER SPENDING IMPROVES 0.3%
This November increase matched the forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com, and it was a nice change after a flat October reading (revised down from an initially reported 0.1% gain). Consumer incomes also rose 0.3% in November.1
   
HOUSEHOLD OPTIMISM INCREASES IN DECEMBER
At mid-month, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index presented a reading of 91.8. Last week, it rose slightly to 92.6. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected a final December reading of 92.0.1
  
RULE CHANGES HAMPER EXISTING HOME SALES
New mortgage disclosure rules instituted by the federal government delayed some closings in November. Therefore, the 10.5% slip in resales reported by the National Association of Realtors was not all that surprising. New home sales fared better in November: the Census Bureau reported a 4.3% increase. Year-over-year, new home buying was up 9.1%.2
      
FINAL Q3 GDP NUMBER: 2.0%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its third-quarter growth estimate last week; its prior appraisal was 2.1%. In a development related to this quarter’s GDP, hard goods orders were flat in November.1
 
OIL REBOUNDS, STOCKS FOLLOW SUIT
The NYMEX price of WTI crude settled at $38.10 a barrel Christmas Eve, rising 5.7% for the trading week. Wall Street, as a consequence, had its best week since mid-November. The S&P 500 rose 2.76% during three-and-a-half trading days to 2,060.99, while the Dow gained 2.47% to 17,552.17, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.55% t0 5,048.49.3,4
          
THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Tuesday sees the release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s December consumer confidence index. On Wednesday, NAR’s November pending home sales index appears. The Labor Department issues a weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, which is also New Year’s Eve; the bond market will close at 2:00pm EST, but the NYSE and NASDAQ will be open regular hours. New Year’s Day falls on Friday, with all U.S. financial markets closed.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
-1.52
-2.65
+10.33
+6.13
NASDAQ
+6.60
+5.76
+17.88
+12.44
S&P 500
+0.10
-1.00
+12.80
+6.25
REAL YIELD
12/24 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.73%
0.59%
1.08%
2.07%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/24/155,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/12/21-25 [12/23/15]
2 - foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/12/23/new-home-sales/ [12/23/15]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-end-higher-post-strong-gains-in-holiday-shortened-week-2015-12-24 [12/24/15]
4 - cnbc.com/2015/12/24/us-markets.html [12/24/15]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F24%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F24%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F24%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/24/15]         
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/24/15]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/24/15] 

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Economic Update for the week of December 22, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“Chance is always powerful. Let your hook be always cast; in the pool where you least expect it, there will be a fish.”
     
- Ovid
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
Many people stay with the same bank for decades. Online tools now make it easier to compare various banks. If you find your bank’s fees irritating or its ATM network insufficient, you can explore your options.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Normally flat and often inscribed, it can fall off the tallest building and land unscathed, but it can fall off a kayak or raft and be ruined. What is it?  

   
Last week’s riddle:
Gaze at my flat and anchored face. You will not see 13 any place. What am I?
   
Last week’s answer:
A clock.




December 22, 2015
   
TIGHTENING BEGINS
As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% last week. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-0 to make the move. Its latest dot-plot forecast projects four rate hikes during 2016, which would put the federal funds rate above 1% by the end of next year. The Fed also adjusted the discount rate charged to commercial banks, raising it a quarter-point to 1.0%.1,2
   
ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK FOR OIL
Baker Hughes data showed a gain in the number of active U.S. oil rigs last week, the first since mid-November. Light sweet crude slipped 0.6% Friday, settling at $34.73 on the NYMEX and losing 2.5% in five days.3
      
CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.2%
The core Consumer Price Index matched its October advance in November, taking its year-over-year gain to 2.0%. As for the headline CPI, it was flat in the eleventh month of the year and up just 0.5% in 12 months.4
 
BUILDERS WERE BUSY LAST MONTH
Housing starts climbed 10.5% in November according to the Census Bureau, nearly reversing the (revised) 12.0% decline in October. Building permits surged by 11.0% last month, following a 4.1% October rise.4
   
CRUDE WEIGHS DOWN EQUITIES AGAIN
Aside from a Wednesday rally following the Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates, investors had little to cheer last week. During five days, the S&P 500 declined 0.34% to 2,005.55, the Nasdaq 0.21% to 4,923.08, and the Dow 0.79% t0 17,128.55.3
          
THIS WEEK: Cintas and Steelcase report quarterly results Monday. On Tuesday, Wall Street reacts to November existing home sales figures, the final Q3 GDP number from the federal government, and earnings from ConAgra Foods, Micron, Nike, and Paychex. Wednesday’s important items include reports on November personal spending, new home sales, and capital goods orders and the final December consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. Thursday is Christmas Eve, with the NYSE and NASDAQ closing at 1:00pm EST; earlier, the Labor Department will present its usual weekly initial claims report. Friday is Christmas Day; all U.S. financial markets will be closed.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
-3.90
-3.65
+9.81
+5.81
NASDAQ
+3.95
+3.68
+17.25
+12.15
S&P 500
-2.59
-2.70
+12.25
+5.92
REAL YIELD
12/18 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.73%
0.57%
1.05%
2.11%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, treasury.gov - 12/18/155,6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-lifts-interest-rates-for-first-time-since-2006-2015-12-16 [12/16/15]
2 - marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-dot-plot-still-signals-4-interest-rate-hikes-in-2016-2015-12-16 [12/16/15]
3 - cnbc.com/2015/12/18/us-markets.html [12/18/15]
4 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/calendar [12/18/15]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F17%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F17%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/18/15]         
7 - finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI&a=11&b=8&c=2010&d=11&e=11&f=2010&g=d [12/18/15]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/18/15]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/18/15]

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Economic Update for the week of December 17th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“We can have facts without thinking but we cannot have thinking without facts.”
     
- John Dewey
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
Too many people believe they can create a great lifestyle for themselves by buying goods and services. They end up with depreciating material items and large debts. Paying yourself first and investing for the long term is a better path toward a better quality of life.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Gaze at my flat and anchored face. You will not see 13 any place. What am I?

   
Last week’s riddle:
These two things are measured by units associated with temperature and time, yet they mark no time and have no temperature. What are they?
   
Last week’s answer:
Latitude and longitude.




December 17, 2015
   
HOW LOW WILL OIL FUTURES GO?
Did they hit bottom Friday afternoon, when WTI crude settled at $35.62 on the NYMEX? Maybe not, given the International Energy Agency’s new advisory that the oil glut may grow larger in 2016. Even Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed at $37.94 at the end of the week. Forecasts for a mild winter have also disappointed oil investors. Not since February 2009 have WTI crude prices been this low.1
   
RETAIL SALES IMPROVE 0.2%
The November gain fell short of the 0.3% advance projected by analysts polled by Briefing.com, but it surpassed the 0.1% increase for October. Core retail sales (minus auto, gas, and home improvement purchases) rose a healthy 0.4% last month.2
      
CONSUMERS GROW A BIT MORE POSITIVE
Last week brought a minor gain for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. It had ended November at 91.3; its preliminary December reading was slightly better at 91.8, beating a Briefing.com consensus forecast of 91.6.2
 
PRODUCER PRICES HEAD NORTH
After three months without an advance, the federal government’s Producer Price Index rose 0.3% for November. The core PPI increased by the same amount. Year over year, headline PPI was still down 1.1% while core PPI was up 0.5%.2,3
   
STOCKS RETREAT AS CRUDE PRICES SINK
All three major indices were rattled by the rout in oil. On the week, the Dow lost 3.26%, the S&P 500 3.79%, and the Nasdaq 4.06%. Their Friday closes: Nasdaq, 4,933.47; Dow, 17,265.21; S&P, 2,012.37.4
          
THIS WEEK: Monday, China releases new data on its industrial output and Navistar and VeriFone offer Q4 earnings news. The November CPI arrives Tuesday. Wednesday, investors around the world will react to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision (announcement at 2:00pm EST with subsequent press conference); reports on November housing starts, building permits and industrial production will also appear, plus earnings news from Cintas, FedEx, Jabil Circuit, Oracle, and Pier 1. Thursday, the Conference Board issues its November leading indicator index, new initial claims figures are released, and Accenture, Carnival, General Mills, Red Hat, Scholastic Corp., and Winnebago all present earnings. CarMax, Darden Restaurants, and Lennar round out the week with earnings news on Friday.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
-3.13
-1.88
+10.26
+6.03
NASDAQ
+4.17
+4.79
+17.41
+11.82
S&P 500
-2.26
-1.13
+12.45
+5.97
REAL YIELD
12/11 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.67%
0.49%
1.16%
2.17%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, treasury.gov - 12/11/155,6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - cnbc.com/2015/12/10/us-crude-oil-holds-near-2009-lows-as-global-glut-persists.html [12/11/15]
2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/12/07-11 [12/11/15]
3 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/ppi.htm [12/11/15]
4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/overview/overview.asp [12/11/15]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F10%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F10%2F10&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/11/15]          
7 - finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI&a=11&b=8&c=2010&d=11&e=11&f=2010&g=d [12/11/15]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/11/15]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/11/15]