Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Economic Update for the week of October 20th, 2020

In this week’s recap: A difficult week for stocks, reacting to delayed stimulus, little good news on COVID-19 treatment, and jobless claims. Weekly Economic Update Presented by Troy L Thompson, CFP October 20, 2020 THE WEEK ON WALL STREET Stocks treaded water last week amid fading prospects for a stimulus bill, fears of a second wave of COVID-19 cases, and increasing political and regulatory pressures on Big Tech companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.07% while the Standard & Poor’s 500 eked out a gain of 0.19%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 0.79% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 2.08%.1,2,3 ROCKY WEEK The stock market began the week by posting strong gains on hopes of a fiscal stimulus bill. Also, investors were optimistic that earnings season would reflect an improving picture of corporate performance. But stocks stumbled midweek on a mixed bag of early earnings results, and an increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe. Disappointing news on some key COVID-19 treatment trials also weighed on the market, as did a jump in new jobless claims and a continued stalemate on a fiscal stimulus package. Stocks attempted to rally on Friday, emboldened by strong retail sales, but lost momentum as trading came to a close. EARNINGS SEASON KICKS OFF Earnings season began on an upbeat note as major banks mostly beat revenue and profit expectations. Banks attributed the strength to rising consumer deposits, a drop in the amount of money set aside for failing loans, and strong results from their investment banking and trading units.4 Airlines fared less well. Investors were disappointed with the quarterly reports even though the average daily cash burn at these companies generally improved. Airline management uniformly accompanied their earnings announcements with warnings of continued near-term weakness due to COVID-19.5 T I P O F T H E W E E K Consider setting up ground rules before you take someone into your home. It may be uncomfortable, but no one wants to argue over misunderstandings. THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA Tuesday: Housing Starts. Thursday: Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, October 16, 2020 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS Monday: Halliburton (HAL), PPG Industries (PPG), International Business Machines (IBM). Tuesday: Netflix (NFLX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Procter & Gamble (PG), Snap (SNAP), Texas Instruments (TXN). Wednesday: Verizon (VZ), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), CSX Corp. (CSX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Thursday: AT&T (T), Intel Corp. (INTC), Coca Cola Co. (KO), American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV). Friday: American Express (AXP). Source: Zacks, October 16, 2020 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice. Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K “A person will be just about as happy as they make up their minds to be.” ABRAHAM LINCOLN T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E What should the last entry be in the following sequence of numbers: 9|18, 8|46, 7|94, 6|63, 5|52, 4|__? LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Al gives Jane three boxes, one labeled DIAMONDS, one labeled PEARLS and one labeled DIAMONDS OR PEARLS. He tells her that all three boxes are labeled incorrectly, and that one box contains diamonds, one pearls and the other emeralds. Al then tells Jane that if she can guess the contents of any box without opening it, she can keep the contents. How many boxes must Jane open to do this, and/or how many boxes can she keep? ANSWER: Jane keeps everything and does not need to open a single box. Since each box is labeled incorrectly, the box labeled "Diamonds or Pearls" must contain emeralds. Therefore, the box labeled "Pearls" must contain diamonds, and the box labeled "Diamonds" must contain pearls. Troy L Thompson, CFP may be reached at 515-432-5421 or troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com www.thompsonfinancialinc.com Know someone who could use information like this? Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.) Troy Thompson, CFP DBA Thompson Financial and Hanson Asset Strategies Securities offered through FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC. Member FINRA & SIPC. Thompson Financial is not affiliated with FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2020 FMG Suite. CITATIONS: 1. The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2020 2. The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2020 3. The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2020 4. CNBC.com, October 13, 2020 5. CNBC.com, October 14, 2020

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Economic Update for the week of October 15th, 2020

In this week’s recap: Stocks soar, despite mixed messages on fiscal stimulus. Weekly Economic Update Presented by Troy L Thompson, CFP October 15, 2020 THE WEEK ON WALL STREET Stocks staged a powerful rally last week, riding a wave of optimism over the prospect of the passage of a new fiscal stimulus bill. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 increased 3.84%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 4.56% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.23%.1-3 STIMULUS STALEMATE? The anticipation of lawmakers passing a new round of economic stimulus was a decisive driver of market action all week. A mid-week tweet by President Trump announcing that he was ending stimulus negotiations sent stocks lower. Losses were exacerbated by sharp declines in some mega-cap technology companies as details emerged from a House Judiciary subcommittee report on its investigation into their competitive practices.4 Stocks quickly reversed direction, climbing after the President tweeted that he would sign a limited stimulus bill, but lawmakers appeared to reject a piecemeal approach. Stocks consolidated on Friday, helped by continuing stimulus talks and new election polls that suggested that the risk of a contested outcome appeared to be fading. SMALL CAP RALLY The outperformance of large cap stocks relative to small cap stocks has been both wide and persistent during the last ten years. Last week’s action in small cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 Index, indicates that smaller companies may finally be making up some ground.5 Last week, the Russell 2000 Index rose 6.33%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.4%.6 While this outperformance may be fleeting, a potential broadening of the stock market rally may be considered a healthy development. FINAL THOUGHTS This week begins the third-quarter earnings season, with companies from a variety of industry sectors reporting (see below). Early earnings reports start predominantly with the major banks, whose earnings results may provide insight into the general health of American consumers. As is often the case, company guidance about the future earnings may be of greater interest to investors than past results. T I P O F T H E W E E K Use your phone or camera to take a video of your home and your belongings. Keep it in a safe place. It may come in handy someday. THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Thursday: Jobless Claims. Friday: Industrial Production. Consumer Sentiment. Source: Econoday, October 9, 2020 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Blackrock (BLK). Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS). Friday: Schlumberger (SLB), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Kansas City Southern (KSU), V.F. Corporation (VFC). Source: Zacks, October 9, 2020 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice. Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K “He who has a ‘why’ to live can bear almost any ‘how.’” FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E Al gives Jane three boxes, one labeled DIAMONDS, one labeled PEARLS and one labeled DIAMONDS OR PEARLS. He tells her that all three boxes are labeled incorrectly, and that one box contains diamonds, one pearls and the other emeralds. Al then tells Jane that if she can guess the contents of any box without opening it, she can keep the contents. How many boxes must Jane open to do this, and/or how many boxes can she keep? LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: In 15 minutes, a dress will dry on a clothes wire. How long would it take you to dry five dresses? ANSWER: 15 Minutes. They all dry at the same rate and at the same time on a clothes wire. Troy L Thompson may be reached at 515-432-5421 or troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com www.thompsonfinancialinc.com Know someone who could use information like this? Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.) Troy Thompson, CFP DBA Thompson Financial and Hanson Asset Strategies Securities offered through FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC. Member FINRA & SIPC. Thompson Financial is not affiliated with FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2020 FMG Suite. CITATIONS: 1. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 2. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 3. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 4. CNBC.com, October 6, 2020 5. The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2020 6. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 CHART CITATIONS: The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 Treasury.gov, October 9, 2020