Economic Update for the week of September 27th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Learning is not attained by chance. It must be sought for with ardor and attended to with diligence.”       - Abigail Adams            WEEKLY TIP               By tracking a company’s typical month-to-month sales cycle, a business owner can identify when to put money into reserve to see a business through leaner months on the way to boom times.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              How can you take three toothpicks and make them into the number nine?     Last week’s riddle: I am soft and seldom upright. I lose a head in the morning, but I get it back at night. What am I?       Last week’s answer: A pillow.	September 27, 2016     FED WAITS TO RAISE INTEREST RATES Federal Reserve officials decided against a rate hike last week, but two details in the central bank’s latest policy statement suggested an upward move was near. One, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 7-3 against raising the federal funds rate – an unusually close margin. Two, the Fed’s new dot-plot forecast showed consensus for a rate increase before the end of 2016. “Our decision [to wait] does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy,” Fed chair Janet Yellen told the media after the announcement. “We’re generally pleased with how the U.S. economy is doing.”1      FEWER HOUSING STARTS, LESS HOMEBUYING August saw existing home sales dip 0.9%; as the National Association of Realtors delivered that news, it also revised its July sales calculation to a decline of 3.4%. A Census Bureau report showed housing starts falling 5.8% last month, and building permits decreasing 0.4% following an 0.8% retreat in July.2     OIL GAINS FOR WEEK, EVEN WITH 4% FRIDAY FALL WTI crude settled Friday at $44.48 on the NYMEX, even after the price slipped 4% in one trading day. The worst daily drop for the commodity since July 13 did not stop crude from posting a 2% weekly gain.3    TURBULENCE, BUT ALSO AN ADVANCE Stocks pushed through volatility and gained ground last week. Across five trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.76%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.17%; and the S&P 500, 1.19%. The three indices closed, as follows, Friday: Dow, 18,261.45; Nasdaq, 5,305.75; S&P, 2,164.69. Incidentally, the Dow Jones Utility Average ended the week at +20.15% YTD.4     THIS WEEK: Monday brings August new home sales data, earnings from Carnival and Thor Industries, and the first presidential debate. The Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index and the July Case-Shiller home price index arrive Tuesday, plus quarterly results from Cintas and Nike. On Wednesday, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies on bank supervision and regulation before the House Financial Services Committee, the latest durable goods orders report appears, and Paychex and Pier 1 present quarterly results. Thursday, Janet Yellen speaks at a Kansas City Fed conference, NAR issues its August pending home sales report, the final number on Q2 GDP comes out of Washington, and new initial claims figures appear, along with earnings from ConAgra Foods, Costco, and PepsiCo.  August personal spending data and the final September consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan take the spotlight Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +4.80 +12.17 +13.91 +5.87 NASDAQ +5.96 +11.64 +22.73 +13.91 S&P 500 +5.91 +11.65 +18.10 +6.46 REAL YIELD 9/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.05% 0.64% 0.10% 2.27%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/23/164,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-meeting-20160921-snap-story.html [9/21/16] 2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/23/16] 3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-as-investors-cash-in-on-gains-ahead-of-next-weeks-opec-meeting-2016-09-23/ [9/23/16] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F23%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F22%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/23/16] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/23/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/23/16]

Economic update for the week of September 14th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “Forever is composed of nows.”     - Emily Dickinson           WEEKLY TIP               If you are thinking of adopting a child, you should know that some employers offer adoption assistance programs, through which you can offset some or all of those costs with a tax-free reimbursement. In addition, you may be eligible for a federal credit with a $12,150 limit to counter any adoption expenses not reimbursed by an employer subsidy.           WEEKLY RIDDLE             You contact it in the street, and lie above it in the night. It may shake as if it is angry, but it will never bite. What is it?    Last week’s riddle: You use your hand to write; you use me to keep the writing neat and make a point. Every once in a while, you empty me out. What am I?       Last week’s answer: A pencil sharpener.	September 14, 2016    SERVICE SECTOR SEES WEAKEST GROWTH SINCE 2010 The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index came in at a disappointing 51.4 in August, 4.1 points below its July level. While American service industries expanded for a 79th consecutive month, the pace of expansion was the slowest since February 2010, and the monthly drop in the ISM index was the largest recorded since November 2008.1      BEIGE BOOK SHOWS LITTLE WAGE PRESSURE If the economy is near full employment, it is not seeing the strong wage and inflation gains usually linked with that situation. The Federal Reserve’s latest summation of economic activity in its 12 districts stated that wage growth was “fairly modest” with little improvement expected in the near term. While wages increased in many districts for highly skilled workers, the Fed also noted that employers had been hard-pressed to fill job vacancies in the IT, engineering, and construction fields.2      OIL, GOLD PUSH HIGHER WTI crude advanced 3.2% last week, even with a 3.7% Friday slip. Crude settled at $45.88 a barrel on the NYMEX Friday. Gold ended the week at a COMEX price of $1,334.50, up 0.6% in five days.3    VOLATILITY RETURNS Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren created some market turbulence Friday, warning that the economy could overheat if the central bank waits much longer to raise interest rates. His remarks came just a day after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi indicated a reduced possibility of further stimulus efforts for the European Union. A sharp Friday selloff sent the major indices significantly down for the week – the S&P 500 fell 2.39% to 2,127.81; the Nasdaq, 2.36% to 5,125.91; and the Dow, 2.20% to 18,085.45.4,5     THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled on Monday or Tuesday. On Wednesday, Analogic and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store announce earnings. The data stream picks up on Thursday, when investors consider August retail sales numbers, August industrial production, the August Producer Price Index, a new initial claims report, and earnings from Oracle and Progressive. On Friday, the August Consumer Price Index arrives, along with September’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +3.79 +11.27 +12.91 +5.88 NASDAQ +2.37 +7.77 +21.54 +13.67 S&P 500 +4.10 +9.57 +16.87 +6.38 REAL YIELD 9/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.17% 0.65% -0.03% 2.35%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/9/165,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - tinyurl.com/zho9nnp [9/6/16] 2 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/07/beige-book-wage-increases-restricted-to-highly-skilled-jobs.html [9/7/16] 3 - 247wallst.com/investing/2016/09/09/verizon-coca-cola-tank-djia-on-friday/ [9/9/16] 4 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-09/u-s-futures-little-changed-with-s-p-500-stuck-in-two-month-lull [9/9/16] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F9%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F8%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/9/16] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/9/16] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/9/16]

Economic Update for the week of September 7th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “Realize deeply that the present moment is all you ever have.”      - Eckhart Tolle           WEEKLY TIP               Three actions can help you to build a good financial foundation prior to turning 40: funding retirement accounts, paying off credit card debt and creating an emergency fund.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              You use your hand to write; you use me to keep the writing neat and make a point. Every once in a while, you empty me out. What am I?    Last week’s riddle: Together, an antique dresser and the old baseball cards found within it are valued at $20,000. If the baseball cards are worth $18,000 more than the dresser, how much is the dresser worth?       Last week’s answer: $1,000. The baseball cards are worth $19,000.	September 7, 2016    MODEST JOB GROWTH IN AUGUST Payrolls expanded with 151,000 net new jobs last month, according to the Department of Labor’s latest report. The jobless rate was unchanged at 4.9%, and the U-6 rate tracking underemployment remained at 9.7%. After the release of the data, Wall Street traders saw only a 21% chance of a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a 55% chance of a rate increase by the end of 2016.1      FACTORY SECTOR CONTRACTS Taking a surprisingly steep drop, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager index fell down to 49.4 in August, indicating a slowdown in U.S. factory activity. In July, the PMI had a reading of 52.6.2     SOLID Consumer Confidence, spending NUMBERS The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted a 0.3% rise in personal spending and a 0.4% gain for personal income in July. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 4.4 points in August to an impressive 101.1 mark.2       PENDING HOME SALES IMPROVE Housing contract activity increased 1.3% in July, according to the National Association of Realtors, more than offsetting the 0.8% June fall. The May edition of the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed a 5.1% year-over-year gain in home values.2 S&P 500 LOGS WEEKLY GAIN Across five trading days, the broad benchmark rose 0.50% to 2,179.98. The Nasdaq and Dow posted similar gains in the same interval – the Nasdaq rose 0.59% to 5,249.90; the Dow, 0.52% to 18,491.96. The CBOE VIX – the “fear index” measuring market volatility – closed at just 11.97 Friday, down 12.31% for the week.3     THIS WEEK: Monday is Labor Day, so U.S. financial markets will be closed. ISM’s August service sector PMI arrives Tuesday, plus earnings from Casey’s General Stores, Dave & Buster’s, and TiVo. Wednesday, Apple may unveil the iPhone 7 (and other new products) at its annual fall media event, the Federal Reserve issues a new Beige Book, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Valspar announce quarterly results. Thursday, the Department of Labor presents the latest initial claims figures and Barnes & Noble announces quarterly earnings. Friday, Hovnanian and Kroger report earnings.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.12 +13.09 +12.90 +6.13 NASDAQ +4.84 +10.52 +22.33 +13.94 S&P 500 +6.66 +11.86 +17.14 +6.63 REAL YIELD 9/2 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.13% 0.64% 0.00% 2.25%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/2/163,4,5,6 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/09/02/tepid-august-jobs-report-lack-wage-growth-muddies-rate-hike-picture.html [9/2/16] 2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [9/2/16] 3 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F2%2F15&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F1%2F06&x=0&y=0 [9/2/16] 5 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/2/16] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/2/16]