Economic Update for the week of January 24th, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “Always laugh when you can. It is cheap medicine.”      - Lord Byron            WEEKLY TIP               If you think you will receive a federal tax refund this year, why not file electronically and arrange a direct deposit to your checking or savings account? Alternately, you can use IRS Direct Pay to make individual and estimated tax payments from your bank accounts.          WEEKLY RIDDLE             A bus without passengers pulls into Tucson, where 10 passengers board it. In Las Cruces, 5 passengers get off the bus, and twice as many passengers get on as in Tucson. Then in El Paso, 25 passengers get off the bus. How many people are on the bus as it leaves El Paso?    Last week’s riddle: It is a home with no doors, and when its occupant leaves it cracks and it is no more. What is it?       Last week’s answer: An egg.	January 24, 2017    LARGEST INFLATION ADVANCE IN 5 YEARS The Consumer Price Index rose 2.1% in 2016, marking its greatest annual gain since 2011. During 2015, consumer prices only increased by 0.7%. December saw a 0.3% rise for the headline CPI and a 0.2% gain for the core CPI (which excludes food and energy costs). The core CPI gained 2.2% last year.1      MUCH MORE GROUNDBREAKING IN DECEMBER Cold had little impact on residential construction as 2016 ended. Housing starts advanced 11.3% last month and rose 5.7% for the year. Single-family starts declined 4.0% in December, but they still improved 3.9% in 2016. Building permits were down 0.2% last month and posted a yearly gain of 0.7%.2    GOLD GOES BACK ABOVE $1,200 The yellow metal rose 1.84% week-over-week to settle Friday at $1,210.00 on the COMEX. (Silver ended the week at $17.12.) On the NYMEX, oil ended up at $52.33 as Wall Street rang its closing bell Friday, retreating 0.19% week-over-week.3        MAJOR INDICES DRIFT LOWER Stocks retreated last week, but just slightly. Across four trading days, losses trimmed the Dow Industrials by 0.30%, the S&P 500 by 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.32%. Friday’s settlements: Dow, 19,827.25; Nasdaq, 5,555.33; S&P, 2,271.31.4   THIS WEEK: On Monday, Halliburton, McDonalds, and Yahoo! report Q4 results. December existing home sales numbers arrive Tuesday, complementing earnings from 3M, Alibaba, Capital One, Corning, D.R. Horton, Discover, Fifth Third Bancorp, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Seagate Technology, Stryker, Texas Instruments, Travelers, and Verizon. Wednesday’s earnings parade features Abbott Labs, AT&T, Boeing, Briggs & Stratton, Brinker International, Dolby Labs, Citrix, Freeport-McMoRan, eBay, Norfolk Southern, Qualcomm, Raymond James, Rockwell Automation, United Rentals, W.W. Grainger, and Western Digital. New initial claims data appears Thursday, plus December new home sales figures and earnings from Alphabet, Biogen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Celgene, Comcast, Dow Chemical, E*TRADE, Ford, Intel, JetBlue, Microsoft, Northrop Grumman, PayPal, Praxair, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Raytheon, Regis, Royal Caribbean, Sherwin-Williams, Southwest Airlines, Stanley Black & Decker, and Starbucks. Friday offers the first estimate of Q4 GDP, December durable goods orders, the final January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and earnings from Chevron, American Airlines, Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell, NextEra Energy, and Whirlpool.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.33 +25.75 +11.17 +5.78 NASDAQ +3.20 +24.23 +19.87 +12.66 S&P 500 +1.45 +22.16 +14.53 +5.88 REAL YIELD 1/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.44% 0.69% 0.01% 2.47%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/20/175,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - houstonchronicle.com/business/economy/article/Consumer-prices-up-a-moderate-0-3-percent-last-10867241.php [1/18/17] 2 - marketwatch.com/story/housing-starts-surge-in-december-to-second-highest-pace-of-recovery-2017-01-19 [1/19/17] 3 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/commodities/commodities.asp [1/20/17] 4 - google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=pYOCWLmWKsn_jAHphIqQBg [1/20/17] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F20%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F20%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F20%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F19%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F19%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F19%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/20/17] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/20/17] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/20/17]

Economic Update for the week of January 19th, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “The best ideas come as jokes. Make your thinking as funny as possible.”      - David Ogilvy            WEEKLY TIP               In a two-parent household, both parents should have life insurance coverage, even if one of them does not work. If one spouse dies, the money from the life insurance policy can help the surviving spouse pay for child care and education expenses.           WEEKLY RIDDLE             It is a home with no doors, and when its occupant leaves it cracks and it is no more. What is it?    Last week’s riddle: It lacks fingers, yet it points. It lacks feet, yet it constantly runs. It lacks arms, yet it may periodically strike. What is it?       Last week’s answer: A clock.	January 19, 2017     RETAIL SALES RISE 0.6% All of this December gain can be attributed to increased car buying and gasoline purchases; in fact, retail sales were flat with those two categories removed. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch had projected a 0.8% December advance. Census Bureau data shows that online sales rose 13.2% in 2016, while department store sales fell 8.4%.1,2      CONSUMERS MAINTAIN OPTIMISM AS 2017 BEGINS The University of Michigan’s preliminary January consumer sentiment index was little changed from the final December edition – just a tenth of a point lower at 98.1. In January 2016, the index was at 92.0. The current conditions component of the index reached 112.5, its highest mark since 2004.3    PRODUCER PRICES CLIMB AGAIN After heading north 0.4% in November, the Producer Price Index advanced another 0.3% in December, perhaps hinting that an extended period of minimal wholesale inflation is now history. The December increase left both the headline and core PPI up 1.6% year-over-year.1        A GOOD WEEK FOR TECH SHARES Across January 9-13, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.96% to settle at 5,574.12. Wall Street’s other two major indices went red for the week – the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.39%; the S&P 500, 0.10%. Friday, the Dow settled at 19,885.73; the S&P, at 2,274.64.4   THIS WEEK: Wall Street observes Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Monday – U.S. stock and bond markets are closed. Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth Group announce earnings Tuesday. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks about monetary policy goals in San Francisco, the December CPI and a new Fed Beige Book appear, and investors examine earnings from Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Fastenal, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Northern Trust, Raymond James, and U.S. Bancorp. Earnings from Alaska Air, American Express, BB&T, Celanese, IBM, J.B. Hunt, Nautilus, and Union Pacific arrive Thursday, along with new data on initial claims, housing starts, and building permits; that night, Janet Yellen talks about the U.S. economic outlook in a California speech. Friday is Inauguration Day: federal offices in Washington, D.C. and its vicinity are closed, but Wall Street is open for business as General Electric, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, and SunTrust Banks present earnings.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.62 +23.12 +12.02 +5.84 NASDAQ +3.55 +23.16 +21.13 +12.27 S&P 500 +1.60 +20.33 +15.29 +5.90 REAL YIELD 1/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.41% 0.65% -0.14% 2.49%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/13/174,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [1/13/17] 2 - marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-climb-06-in-december-2017-01-13/ [1/13/17] 3 - sca.isr.umich.edu/ [1/13/17] 4 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F13%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F13%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F13%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/13/17] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/13/17] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/13/17]

Economic Update for the week of January 11th, 2017

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “One must know oneself, if this does not serve to discover truth, it at least serves as a rule of life and there is nothing better.”       - Blaise Pascal            WEEKLY TIP               Child care costs for working parents can be steep. Fortunately, some employee benefit plans offer dependent care flexible spending accounts. Parents can pay for qualified child care expenses and get a tax break at the same time by using these FSAs, which can be funded with pre-tax dollars.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              It lacks fingers, yet it points. It lacks feet, yet it constantly runs. It lacks arms, yet it may periodically strike. What is it?     Last week’s riddle: Kylie tells her friend Danielle that she knows of a place where Valentine’s Day comes after the Fourth of July. Where is this place?       Last week’s answer: In the dictionary.	January 11, 2017     RISING WAGES, MODERATE HIRING IN DECEMBER The Department of Labor’s latest employment report shows the average hourly wage at $26.00 last month, up 2.9% in a year. That is the largest annualized wage increase seen since June 2009. Payrolls expanded by 156,000 additional hires in December, leaving total 2016 job growth at a 5-year low of 2.2 million. (This could be a sign of the labor market reaching full employment.) The headline jobless rate ticked up to 4.7%, while the U-6 rate encompassing the underemployed was at 9.2%.1       MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY PICKED UP AS 2016 ENDED Investors liked what they saw in the Institute for Supply Management’s December purchasing manager indices. ISM’s manufacturing PMI rose 1.5 points to 54.7, its best reading in two years. The Institute’s service sector PMI held steady at an impressive 57.2 last month.2,3     FED OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC Minutes from the December Federal Reserve policy meeting noted that Federal Open Market Committee members were reasonably confident about the economy for 2017, while citing some “uncertainty about the timing, size and composition” of future policy moves. In other words, the Fed may or may not ultimately follow through on its 2017 forecast of three interest rate hikes. FOMC members saw “only a modest risk” of a “sharp acceleration in prices” this year.4        DOW ENDS WEEK AT 19,964 The blue chips hit an intraday high of 19,999.63 Friday on the way to a 1.02% weekly advance to 19,963.80. As the Dow flirted with history, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made history, respectively closing at record peaks of 2,276.98 and 5,521.06. The S&P gained 1.70% for the week; the Nasdaq, 2.56%. Dropping 19.37% in five days, the CBOE VIX “fear index” finished the trading week at 11.32.5,6    THIS WEEK: On Monday, Acuity Brands, Alcoa, and WD-40 report Q4 results. Nothing significant is scheduled on Tuesday. KB Home and SuperValu announce earnings Wednesday. Thursday, the latest initial jobless claims report appears, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen addresses teachers at a Washington, D.C. town hall meeting, and Delta Air Lines shares Q4 results. The week’s major news items all arrive Friday – investors will consider the December retail sales report from the Census Bureau, December’s Producer Price Index, the initial January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and earnings reports from Bank of America, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, PNC, and Wells Fargo.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +1.02 +18.08 +12.30 +6.10 NASDAQ +2.56 +14.17 +21.29 +12.68 S&P 500 +1.70 +14.41 +15.64 +6.15 REAL YIELD 1/6 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.46% 0.65% -0.11% 2.38%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/6/176,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/01/06/december-jobs-report-the-numbers-3/ [1/6/17] 2 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence [1/4/17] 3 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi [1/5/17] 4 - nytimes.com/2017/01/04/business/economy/federal-reserve-minutes-interest-rates.html [1/4/17] 5 - cnbc.com/2017/01/06/us-markets.html [1/6/17] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F6%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F6%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F6%2F16&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F5%2F07&x=0&y=0 [1/6/17] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/6/17] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/6/17]