Economic Update for the week of November 24th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”       - Theodore Roosevelt            WEEKLY TIP               As you plan for retirement, view Social Security benefits as a supplement to your retirement savings. You do not want to have to “rely” on Social Security once retired.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              You cannot see me. I am inside everyone. I only emerge in anger. The shorter I am, the hotter I am. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: 5 letters have I, I start in E and end in Y. Take away my first, third and last letter and the 2 letters left will sound the same as when you started with me. I am a 5-letter word; what word am I?     Last week’s answer: Empty.	November 24, 2015     FED HINTS AT A DECEMBER RATE HIKE Minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released last Wednesday, and they revealed that “most” of the 10 FOMC members thought that conditions for a rate hike “could well be met by the time of the next meeting.” Another passage noted that “it may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process” at the December 15-16 Fed policy meeting. The minutes also stated that “economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”1   CONSUMER PRICES ROSE 0.2% IN OCTOBER This advance in the headline CPI contrasted with retreats in August and September. The core CPI also rose 0.2% last month. In annualized terms, the headline CPI increased 0.2% in the 12 months ending in October, the core CPI 1.9%.2       OIL CLOSES UNDER $4o Light crude settled at just $39.39 a barrel on the NYMEX Friday. That was the lowest close seen since late August. Oil has sunk 10.35% so far in November. On the COMEX, gold ended the week at $1,075.90 per ounce, silver at $14.09 per ounce.3   FALL RALLY RESUMES Investors seemed relieved rather than bothered by the prospect of higher interest rates before the end of the year. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had great weeks, posting respective 5-day gains of 3.35%, 3.59% and 3.27%. When things settled Friday, the Dow ended the week at 17,823.81, the Nasdaq at 5,104.92 and the S&P at 2,089.17.4            THIS WEEK: On Monday, Wall Street looks at October existing home sales and earnings from GameStop, Palo Alto Networks and Tyson Foods. Tuesday offers the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index, the second estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September and earnings from Campbell Soup, Chico’s, Cracker Barrel, Dollar Tree, DSW, Fred’s, GUESS?, Hormel Foods, HP, Tiffany and TiVo. Wednesday sees the release of the University of Michigan’s final November consumer sentiment index, the latest initial claims numbers, reports on October new home sales, capital goods orders and personal spending, and Q3 results from Deere. Thursday is Thanksgiving Day, so U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed. Wall Street will have a shortened trading day on Friday (the NYSE and NASDAQ will close at 1:00pm EST) with no major economic or earnings reports scheduled.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.00004 +0.59 +11.82 +6.47 NASDAQ +7.79 +8.57 +20.55 +12.77 S&P 500 +1.47 +1.77 +14.83 +6.65 REAL YIELD 11/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.66% 0.49% 0.77% 2.08%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 11/20/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/11/18/federal-reserve-minutes/ [11/18/15] 2 - cnbc.com/2015/11/17/us-consumer-price-index-oct-2015.html [11/20/15] 3 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/20/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/20/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F31%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F20%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F20%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F20%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F19%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F19%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F19%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/20/15]          7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/20/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/20/15]

Economic Update for the week of November 17th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety.”       - Isaac Asimov            WEEKLY TIP               Are your investment allocations still in agreement with your investing goals? An annual review can help you find that out, and determine whether rebalancing is necessary.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              5 letters have I, I start in E and end in Y. Take away my first, third and last letter and the 2 letters left will sound the same as when you started with me. I am a 5-letter word; what word am I?     Last week’s riddle: When you shop for clothes, XL is always larger than L...but clothing sizes aside, in what numerical context is L larger than XL?     Last week’s answer: In Roman numerals. The Roman numeral L = 50. However, X placed before L means “ten less” than L, so the Roman numeral XL = 40.	November 17, 2015     RETAIL PURCHASES UP JUST 0.1% IN OCTOBER The tiny increase was actually an improvement, as retail sales were flat in both August and September. Gas station sales tailed off 0.9% in October, car sales 0.5%; offsetting those declines, online retail purchases were up 1.4% last month, spending at restaurants and bars up 0.5%. The Commerce Department’s latest report notwithstanding, the National Retail Federation projects holiday season retail sales to rise 3.7% this year to $630.5 billion.1   HOUSEHOLDS THINK POSITIVE Economists polled by Bloomberg expected the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to rise 2.0 points to 92.0. It surpassed that forecast, reaching 93.1 thanks in large part to consumer expectations of low inflation and larger wage gains in 2016. Twelve months ago, the index was at 88.8.2       PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DECREASES AGAIN The Labor Department’s barometer of wholesale inflation declined 0.4% in October. September saw the index fall 0.5%. Through October, the PPI was down 1.6% year-over-year, even though wholesale gasoline prices rose 3.8% last month. Core producer prices have risen but 0.1% in 12 months.1,3   STOCKS RETREAT ON SOFT DATA, LOW OIL PRICES Negative wholesale inflation, tepid retail sales and light sweet crude ending the week at $40.74 on the NYMEX, its lowest close since August 26 – that was enough to snap Wall Street’s winning streak. The S&P 500 lost 3.63% on the week to fall to 2,023.04 Friday. The Dow (-3.71%) and Nasdaq (-4.26%) made similar descents, wrapping up the week at respective closes of 17,245.24 and 4,927.88.4,5            THIS WEEK: Monday offers quarterly results from Agilent Technologies and Dillard’s. Tuesday, October’s CPI and a report on October industrial output complement earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Jack-in-the-Box, La-Z-Boy, TJX and Walmart. Minutes from the October Federal Reserve policy meeting appear on Wednesday, along with October’s housing starts report and earnings from Aramark, Keurig Green Mountain, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, Staples, Target, The Children’s Place and Weibo. Thursday brings the Conference Board’s latest leading indicator index, a new initial claims report and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Best Buy, Fresh Market, Gap, Intuit, J.M. Smucker, Kirkland’s, Ross, Stein Mart and Williams-Sonoma. Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker report Q3 results on Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -3.24 -2.31 +10.82 +6.12 NASDAQ +4.05 +5.29 +19.14 +12.40 S&P 500 -1.74 -0.80 +13.74 +6.40 REAL YIELD 11/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.76% 0.47% 0.71% 2.14%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 11/13/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - nbcnews.com/business/economy/online-purchases-eating-out-help-october-retail-sales-edge-higher-n462846 [11/13/15]  2 - 247wallst.com/economy/2015/11/13/consumer-sentiment-climbs-again/ [11/13/15] 3 - usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/13/us-producer-prices-drop-in-latest-sign-of-tame-inflation [11/13/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/13/15] 5 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-settles-lower-down-8-on-week-2015-11-13 [11/13/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/13/15]           8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/13/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/13/15]

Economic Update for the week of November 10th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Sooner or later we all quote our mothers.”       - Bernard Williams            WEEKLY TIP               If you own a business and need a new credit card, do a little research. If you travel frequently, a card offering travel perks or insurance might be ideal. If you know you will have an outstanding monthly balance, look for a low interest rate.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              When you shop for clothes, XL is always larger than L...but clothing sizes aside, in what numerical context is L larger than XL?     Last week’s riddle: What 5-letter word for a type of crop can you remove 2 letters from, then rearrange the 3 letters left to make the word “tea”?     Last week’s answer: Wheat.	November 10, 2015     OCTOBER WAS A GREAT MONTH FOR JOB GROWTH Employers added 271,000 new jobs last month according to the Labor Department, far surpassing the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 182,000. The jobless rate ticked down to an even 5.0% while the U-6 rate measuring “total” unemployment fell to 9.8%. Wages also rose nine cents to $25.20, up 2.5% in 12 months; that is the largest yearly improvement in six years. If November hiring compares to this, the Federal Reserve may be encouraged to raise interest rates in December.1   NOTABLE EXPANSION IN THE SERVICE SECTOR The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI hit 59.1 for October, rising 2.2 points. At the same time, ISM’s manufacturing PMI ticked down to a troubling 50.1, indicating minimal sector growth in the year’s tenth month. The two indices have not seen a 9-point difference in 14 years.2       A DISAPPOINTING SOCIAL SECURITY CHANGE April 30, 2016 will mark the last day that some married couples will be able to use the file-and-suspend strategy to claim Social Security benefits. In addition, divorced people born after January 2, 1954 will no longer be able to file a restricted application for Social Security benefits after that date. This is all due to passage of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. Married couples may still employ restricted application and file-and-suspend strategies until April 30, as long as one spouse will be age 66 at that date while the other spouse will be age 62 or older in 2015.3,4   ANOTHER WEEK OF GAINS Across five days, the S&P 500 added another 0.95% to settle at 2,099.20 Friday. The index is up 6.02% in the past month. The Nasdaq ended the week at 5,147.12, rising 1.85%; the Dow’s weekly gain was 1.40%, and that took the blue chips to a Friday close of 17,910.33.5            THIS WEEK: Wall Street looks at earnings from Dean Foods, DISH Network, Hertz Global, Jamba, Lions Gate Entertainment and Priceline Group on Monday. Tuesday’s earnings parade includes results from Beazer Homes, D.R. Horton, and Tribune Media. On Wednesday, earnings arrive from Dillard’s, Macy’s, NetEase, Popeyes, and Smart & Final. A new initial claims report appears Thursday, plus results from Advance Auto Parts, Applied Materials, Cisco, El Pollo Loco, Fossil, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, and Planet Fitness. On Friday, investors examine October retail sales figures, the October PPI, the initial November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and Q3 results from J.C. Penney.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.49 +2.03 +11.30 +6.92 NASDAQ +8.68 +10.97 +19.92 +13.62 S&P 500 +1.96 +3.35 +14.25 +7.17 REAL YIELD 11/6 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.75% 0.45% 0.48% 2.03%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 11/6/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - usatoday.com/story/money/2015/11/06/october-jobs-report/75247628/ [11/6/15] 2 - usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/04/private-survey-growth-of-us-services-sector-surged-in-oct [11/4/15] 3 - cbsnews.com/news/new-rules-for-social-security-claiming-strategies/ [11/4/15] 4 - marketwatch.com/story/social-security-changes-will-hit-couples-divorced-women-hard-2015-11-06 [11/6/15] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [11/6/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F6%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F6%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F6%2F14&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F5%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F5%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F5%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/6/15]               8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/6/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/6/15]