Economic Update for the week of September 29th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Sometimes life is going to hit you in the head with a brick. Don’t lose faith.”       - Steve Jobs            WEEKLY TIP               How many of us think about saving first, spending second? Most households save or invest whatever is left after monthly expenses. Would our savings (and wealth) grow faster if we saw things the other way around?          WEEKLY RIDDLE              Take a letter out of it, and it stays put and the same; remove all the letters from it and it still stays put and stays the same. What is it?     Last week’s riddle: Brittany carried a load of wood in a wheelbarrow, yet the wood was neither straight nor crooked. How could this be?     Last week’s answer: She was carrying a load of sawdust.	September 29, 2015                         A BIT MORE OPTIMISM AS SEPTEMBER ENDS The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index advanced slightly in the past couple of weeks, rising to a final September mark of 87.2 from its initial reading of 85.7. Regardless, this was the index’s poorest final monthly reading since October 2014. It did surpass the expectations of analysts polled by Bloomberg, who expected a final number of 86.5.1   DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS FOR AUGUST HOME SALES New home buying increased 5.7% during the month of August, and the sales pace was the strongest measured by the Census Bureau since February 2008. This put new home sales up 21.6% year-over-year. On the other hand, National Association of Realtors data showed resales slumping 4.8% last month.2   DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RETREAT 2.0% The August reduction matched the consensus forecast at Briefing.com. Beneath the headline number, core durable goods orders (excluding the transportation category) were flat in August.3      Q2 GDP REVISED UP TO 3.9% This is 0.2% better than the previous estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Household consumption grew at a 3.6% annual pace in Q2 – double what it was in Q1. Residential construction grew at a 9.3% pace in the quarter, business investment at a 5.2% rate.1   A DOWN WEEK FOR EQUITIES Last week saw the major U.S. indices pull back. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 16314.67, the S&P 500 at 1,931.34 and the Nasdaq Composite at 4,686.50. On the week, the Dow lost 0.43%, the S&P 1.36%, and the Nasdaq 2.92%.4              THIS WEEK: August consumer spending figures arrive Monday along with NAR’s latest pending home sales index. Tuesday, the July Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index appear, along with earnings from Barracuda Networks, Costco, and Diamond Foods. Wednesday brings ADP’s September job-change report and quarterly results from Paychex; also, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks at a banking conference in St. Louis. On Thursday, Wall Street will watch September’s ISM factory PMI, the September Challenger job-cut report and the latest initial jobless claims figures. The Labor Department issues its September employment report Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -8.46 -3.72 +10.04 +5.62 NASDAQ -1.05 +4.92 +19.36 +12.09 S&P 500 -6.20 -1.76 +13.63 +5.89 REAL YIELD 9/25 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.71% 0.50% 0.81% 1.78%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/25/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-25/economy-in-u-s-picked-up-on-consumer-spending-construction [9/25/15] 2 - housingwire.com/articles/35142-new-home-sales-climb-57-in-august [9/24/15] 3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/09/21-25 [9/25/15]  4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/25/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F25%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F24%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F26%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/25/15]             7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/25/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/25/15]

Economic Update for the week of September 24th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Love is, above all else, the gift of oneself.”       - Jean Anouilh            WEEKLY TIP               How long should you keep hard-copy bank account statements? A year is often long enough. Retain them longer if you want to use them to support tax records.            WEEKLY RIDDLE              Brittany carried a load of wood in a wheelbarrow, yet the wood was neither straight nor crooked. How could this be?     Last week’s riddle: I lack lungs, yet I constantly need oxygen; I have no mouth, but sufficient water will drown me. What am I?     Last week’s answer: Fire.	September 24, 2015                         FED POSTPONES RATE MOVE, SIGNALS ONE SOON The September interest rate hike Wall Street had long anticipated did not occur, as the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 against raising the federal funds rate Thursday. In their September 17 policy statement, Federal Reserve officials noted that recent “global economic and financial developments” had “somewhat” impeded the U.S. economy and reduced inflation pressures, lessening the need to tighten. The central bank’s latest dot-plot chart projected the benchmark interest rate at 0.40% by the end of 2015 – hinting that an upward move might come as early as October.1   INFLATION HARDLY PRESENT IN AUGUST Last month, the headline Consumer Price Index retreated 0.1% while the core CPI advanced 0.1%. Through August, the headline CPI had risen just 0.2% during 2015 while the core CPI was up just 1.8% in the past 12 months – not quite the inflation pressure that might prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten.2   A MINOR GAIN IN RETAIL SALES Last month, Americans bought 0.2% more from retailers than they had in July, and only 0.1% more with car and truck sales factored out. In July, overall retail sales rose 0.7% with core retail sales up 0.6%.3      HOUSING STARTS DECLINE, BUT PERMITS INCREASE August saw 3.0% less groundbreaking according to the Census Bureau, but overall housing starts were up 16.6% annually. Building permits rose 3.5% last month.4   INVESTORS RESET EXPECTATIONS The Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged left the market with more questions than answers, yet stocks ended the week about where they began. Across five days, the S&P 500 went -0.15% to 1,958.03, the Dow -0.29% to 16,384.79, and the Nasdaq +0.10% to 4,827.23.5              THIS WEEK: Monday brings August existing home sales numbers plus quarterly results from Lennar and Red Hat. On Tuesday, AutoZone, Carnival Cruise Lines, ConAgra Foods, CarMax, Darden Restaurants, and General Mills all release earnings news. A new factory PMI reading from China appears Wednesday. Thursday offers reports on August new home sales and durable goods orders, initial jobless claims and earnings from Accenture, Bed Bath & Beyond, Cintas, Jabil Circuit, KB Home, Nike, and Pier 1; in addition, Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on monetary policy in Massachusetts. Friday, Wall Street considers the final government estimate of Q2 GDP and the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment index.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -8.07 -5.10 +10.89 +5.52 NASDAQ +1.93 +5.09 +21.69 +12.50 S&P 500 -4.90 -2.65 +14.79 +5.91 REAL YIELD 9/18 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.58% 0.61% 1.00% 1.70%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/18/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-keeps-interest-rates-unchanged-but-forecasts-hike-this-year-2015-09-17 [9/17/15] 2 - news.investors.com/economy/091615-771278-inflation-eases-but-homebuilder-sentiment-rises.htm [9/16/15] 3 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/18/15]  4 - 247wallst.com/housing/2015/09/17/housing-starts-slow-in-august-after-july-estimates-revised-down/ [9/17/15] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/18/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F18%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F17%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F17%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F17%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/18/15]              8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/18/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/18/15]

Economic Update for the week of September 15th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “You cannot depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus.”       - Mark Twain            WEEKLY TIP               If you are starting a business, obtain a credit card and bank account specifically for your company. This can help you avoid comingling of business and personal assets, and it can also allow you to easily identify business-related expenses that can be deducted from business income.            WEEKLY RIDDLE              I lack lungs, yet I constantly need oxygen; I have no mouth, but sufficient water will drown me. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: What has a foot on each side and yet another foot in its middle?     Last week’s answer: A yardstick.	September 15, 2015                         NO SURPRISE: HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT WANES The initial September edition of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in last week at 85.7 – its lowest reading in a year, significantly below its final August mark of 91.9. Given the recent stock market retreat and ongoing headlines about China’s economic slowdown, the closely watched indicator seemed primed for a descent – but a consensus MarketWatch forecast projected a 90.3 reading.1,2   PRODUCER PRICES WERE UNCHANGED IN AUGUST Wholesale inflation was absent last month, at least by the measure of the Labor Department’s Producer Price Index. The flat reading in the headline PPI followed a 0.2% increase in July. Producer prices were down 0.8% across the 12 months ending in August. Annualized wholesale inflation has now been negative for seven straight months, influenced by reduced energy and fuel costs.1   COULD WTI CRUDE DIP TO $20 A BARREL? Analysts at Goldman Sachs see that possibility. On Friday, they released a note commenting that the oil market is “even more oversupplied than we had expected” and that “the potential for oil prices to fall to [levels] near $20/bbl is becoming greater as storage continues to fill.” In Goldman’s model scenario, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude dips to $38 in October and rises to $45 by September 2016. Oil settled at $44.63 on the NYMEX Friday, falling 3.1% for the week.3,4      STOCKS END THE WEEK HIGHER Some bullish sentiment crept back into the market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Across four trading days, the S&P 500 gained 2.07% to a Friday close of 1,961.05. The Dow rose 0.36% to 16,433.09 while the Nasdaq moved up 1.88% to 4,822.34.5              THIS WEEK: Nothing major is slated for Monday. On Tuesday, reports on August retail sales and August industrial output appear. Wednesday, the August Consumer Price Index arrives along with earnings from Cracker Barrel, FedEx, and Oracle. Thursday, investors worldwide will await the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement (a press conference follows); the day’s other news items include August housing starts and building permits, new initial claims figures and quarterly results from Adobe and Rite Aid. On Friday, the Conference Board releases its August leading economic indicators index.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -7.80 -3.61 +11.41 +5.39 NASDAQ +1.82 +5.02 +23.01 +12.17 S&P 500 -4.75 -1.82 +15.35 +5.80 REAL YIELD 9/11 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.61% 0.42% 1.02% 1.69%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/11/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - tinyurl.com/pj74sff [9/11/15] 2 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [9/11/15]  3 - businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-huge-supply-and-weak-demand-could-send-oil-prices-plunging-to-20-per-barrel-2015-9 [9/11/15] 4 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-pulls-back-after-conflicting-supply-signals-2015-09-11/ [9/11/15] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/11/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F11%2F14&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F10%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F10%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F10%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/11/15]             8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/11/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/11/15]