Economic Update for the week of June 30th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “The great thing about getting older is that you don’t lose all the other ages you’ve been.”       - Madeleine L’Engle            WEEKLY TIP               Are you a sole proprietor? If so, see if any net earned income you receive from your business entity may be subject to self-employment tax. This is also worth looking at if you are a manager in an LLC or an active partner in a partnership.        WEEKLY RIDDLE              Constantly hungry, I must always be fed – and any finger I touch will soon turn red. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: What falls yet does not make noise?       Last week’s answer: Night.	June 30, 2015                         CONSUMER SPENDING INCREASES 0.9% This May gain represents quite a change from the mere 0.1% improvement recorded by the Commerce Department for April. It appears households have started to spend some of the money they saved on fuel and energy costs this winter. Consumer incomes rose 0.5% in May, replicating their April advance.1      HOUSEHOLDS FEEL MORE OPTIMISTIC The University of Michigan announced a final June reading of 96.1 for its consumer sentiment index – its highest mark since January. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected no change from the final May reading of 94.6.2   HOUSING MARKET LEAVES DOLDRUMS BEHIND A 2.2% increase in May took new home buying to a level unseen since February 2008: an annualized pace of 546,000 units. Moreover, the Census Bureau reported a 19.5% year-over-year gain for new home purchases. Existing home sales rose 5.1% in May according to the National Association of Realtors, nearing a 6-year peak.3   SILVER LINING IN DURABLE GOODS, Q1 GDP NUMBERS America’s economy shrank 0.2% in Q1 according to the final estimate of the federal government, but that was an improvement from the 0.7% setback previously announced. Census Bureau data showed hard goods orders down 1.8% in May, but they were actually up 0.5% last month with transportation orders factored out.1        5-DAY LOSSES FOR THE 3 MAJOR INDICES The impasse between Greece and its creditors weighed on global equity markets last week, including ours. Across five trading days, the Dow gave back 0.38% to settle Friday at 17,947.02. The Nasdaq lost 0.71% on the week to a Friday settlement of 5,080.51 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.40% to wrap the week at 2,101.61.4         THIS WEEK: Monday, the NAR offers its May pending home sales index and Paychex reports Q2 results. Tuesday sees the release of the Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index, April’s S&P Case/Shiller home price index and earnings from ConAgra Foods. The third quarter kicks off Wednesday with the arrival of ISM’s June factory PMI, the June Challenger job cuts report, ADP’s June employment change report and earnings from Constellation Brands and General Mills. As the federal government observes the July 4 holiday on Friday, the Labor Department’s June jobs report will appear on Thursday along with the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the Commerce Department’s report on May factory orders. Wall Street will be closed for business on Friday.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.70 +6.53 +15.39 +7.44 NASDAQ +7.27 +16.02 +25.70 +14.84 S&P 500 +2.07 +7.38 +19.04 +7.65 REAL YIELD 6/26 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.57% 0.26% 1.21% 1.62%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 6/26/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/06/22-26 [6/26/15] 2 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/mich.htm [6/26/15] 3 - nasdaq.com/article/us-new-home-sales-climb-to-sevenyear-high-in-may-20150623-00645 [6/23/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [6/26/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F26%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F26%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F26%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F27%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F27%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F27%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/26/15]             7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/26/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/26/15]

Economic Update for June 23rd, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless, and knowledge without integrity is dangerous and dreadful.”       - Samuel Johnson            WEEKLY TIP               June is a time to assess your 2015 financial objectives. In terms of debt reduction, retirement saving and portfolio performance, are you on pace toward your yearly goals?        WEEKLY RIDDLE              What falls yet does not make noise?     Last week’s riddle: I am the beginning of sorrow, and the end of sickness. You cannot express happiness without me, yet I am always in risk. I am never in danger, though. What am I?       Last week’s answer: The letter S.	June 23, 2015                         WILL THE FED MAKE A MOVE IN THE FALL? The Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week, but its median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2015 is now at 0.625%. That would seem to suggest multiple adjustments to the key interest rate in the last half of this year, but Fed chair Janet Yellen noted last week that the central bank is looking for “more decisive evidence that a moderate pace of economic growth will be sustained” before making any move. The Fed now projects 2015 GDP at only 1.8-2.0%, down from a range of 2.3-2.7% this spring. Futures markets point to the Fed raising interest rates from historic lows in December, though many economists think the incremental tightening will start in September.1      CPI UP 0.4% IN MAY, BUT INFLATION STILL MUTED Gas prices soared 10.4% last month, prompting a notable rise in the headline Consumer Price Index. The Federal Reserve might not be too concerned with that one-month advance, however. The core CPI (which strips out energy and food prices) was up only 0.1% for May and just 1.7% year-over-year.2   HOUSING STARTS DOWN, BUILDING PERMITS UP These volatile indicators moved in drastically opposite directions in May. According to the Census Bureau, building permits rose 11.8% last month to an 8-year peak while groundbreaking declined 11.1%. Starts were up 5.1% and permits up 25.4% from May 2014.3        STOCKS ADVANCE Rising 1.30% to 5,117.00, the NASDAQ Composite outpaced the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average last week. The blue chips added 0.65% in five days to reach 18,015.95 and the S&P 500 rose 0.76% for the week to a Friday settlement of 2,109.99.4         THIS WEEK: On Monday, the National Association of Realtors presents May existing home sales figures and Sonic and Carnival announce Q2 results. Tuesday, May durable goods and new home sales reports arrive. The final estimate of Q1 GDP appears on Wednesday along with earnings from Nike, Lennar, Winnebago, Steelcase, Bed Bath & Beyond and Monsanto. Thursday, Wall Street evaluates May personal spending numbers, a new initial claims report and earnings from Accenture and Barnes & Noble. Friday brings the University of Michigan’s final June consumer sentiment index.      % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +1.08 +6.47 +14.48 +6.98 NASDAQ +8.04 +17.38 +24.31 +14.51 S&P 500 +2.48 +7.68 +17.76 +7.35 REAL YIELD 6/19 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.40% 0.39% 1.25% 1.74%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 6/19/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/06/17/federal-reserve-rate-hike-likely-before-year-end/ [6/17/15] 2 - marketwatch.com/story/jump-in-us-consumer-prices-in-may-biggest-since-2013-2015-06-18 [6/18/15] 3 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts [6/16/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [6/19/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F19%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F19%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F19%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F18%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F18%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F18%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F20%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F20%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F20%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/19/15]             7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/19/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/19/15]

Economic update for the week of June 16th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “How much easier it is to be critical than to be correct.”       - Benjamin Disraeli            WEEKLY TIP               If you have a large family, it may seem that you should have 3-4 cars, or at least newer and larger vehicles. Think twice about that, as it invites greater household debt.             WEEKLY RIDDLE              I am the beginning of sorrow, and the end of sickness. You cannot express happiness without me, yet I am always in risk. I am never in danger, though. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: On a summer day, two fathers and two sons went fishing and each one of them caught one fish. Why did they return home with just three fish?       Last week’s answer: Because it was a grandfather, a father and a son who went fishing.	June 16, 2015                         SPRING SEES MORE SHOPPING Last week, the Commerce Department announced a 1.2% jump in retail sales for May, topping the 1.1% rise forecast by analysts polled by Briefing.com. Driving the improvement: a 3.7% leap in gas station sales. Purchases increased 2.1% at home improvement outlets, 2.0% at auto dealers and auto parts stores, 1.5% at clothing shops and 1.4% at online retailers. April retail sales were revised from flat to +0.2%, and that makes three straight months of gains.1      WHOLESALE INFLATION INCREASES  Rising gasoline and egg prices influenced the 0.5% gain in the Producer Price Index for May – its largest monthly advance since fall 2012. The core PPI (which strips out energy and food items) rose just 0.1% following April’s 0.2% retreat.2,3   A NICE CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURPRISE The University of Michigan’s respected consumer sentiment index – which ended May at 90.7, its poorest reading since December – exceeded Wall Street expectations. Instead of a slight gain, the preliminary June edition of the index rose to 94.6.2        MIXED WEEK FOR THE MARKET As the closing bell sounded June 12, the three major U.S. stock indices were little changed from the previous week. Across five trading days, the S&P 500 gained a total of 0.06% to reach 2,094.11, the Dow rose 0.28% to 17,898.84 and the NASDAQ lost 0.34% to fall to 5,051.10. Crude prices rose 1.4% on the NYMEX during the week to a $59.96 Friday close; as for gold, it gained 1.0% in five days to settle at $1,179.20 Friday, snapping a three-week losing streak.3,4         THIS WEEK: Monday, Wall Street eyes a Federal Reserve report on May industrial output. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau issues a report on May housing starts and building permits, and earnings arrive from Adobe Systems, Bob Evans Farms and La-Z-Boy. The Fed issues its latest policy statement Wednesday, with investors also evaluating earnings reports from FedEx, Jabil Circuit, Oracle and Pier 1 Imports. May’s Consumer Price Index comes out on Thursday, along with a new initial claims report, the Conference Board’s latest set of leading economic indicators and earnings from Darden Restaurants, Kroger, Rite Aid, Smith & Wesson and Red Hat. CarMax and KB Home report earnings on Friday.      % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +0.43 +6.96 +15.06 +7.01 NASDAQ +6.65 +17.53 +25.03 +14.41 S&P 500 +1.71 +8.50 +18.37 +7.44 REAL YIELD 6/12 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.55% 0.39% 1.29% 1.76%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 6/12/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/retail.htm [6/11/15] 2 - thestreet.com/story/13184801/1/stocks-trade-lower-twitter-jumps-on-ceo-exit.html [6/12/15] 3 - proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/61939/gold-drops-01-to-1179-wti-declines-13-to-5996-61939.html [6/12/15] 4 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [6/12/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F12%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F12%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F12%2F14&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F13%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F13%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F13%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/12/15]              7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/12/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/12/15]