Economic Update for the week of February 25th, 2013

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “You miss 100% of the shots you never take.”       - Wayne Gretzky           WEEKLY TIP               Inflation is tame right now, but keep in mind that even moderate inflation can have significant impact. For example, today’s $20,000 car would cost roughly $29,600 in 2023 after ten years of just 4% annual inflation.            WEEKLY RIDDLE            What can explode slowly, with no smoke or flame?        Last week’s riddle: If a single-engine airplane taxied not onto a runway, but onto an enormous conveyer belt whose speed precisely equaled that of the plane in the opposite direction, could the plane still manage to take off?     Last week’s answer: Yes, eventually. A plane's wheels roll freely, and the thrust generated by the prop or jet engine will still be greater than drag and the lift created by air flowing over the wing will still be greater than the aircraft’s weight.	February 25, 2013     HOME SALES RISE, HOUSING STARTS FALL January brought a 0.4% improvement in existing home sales, even as the inventory of properties for sale hit a 93-month low. The National Association of Realtors reported a 25% year-over-year decline in existing home inventory, which hasn’t been seen since December 1999. The median sales price was $173,600 last month, up 12.9% from a year ago. Turning to new construction, housing starts dropped 8.5% in January after a 15.7% gain in December, but new home permits increased 1.8%.1,2    NO CHANGE IN CPI, BUT PRODUCER PRICES ADVANCE The Consumer Price Index was flat for a second straight month in January, with annualized inflation at just 1.6%. Core CPI (minus food and energy prices) advanced 0.3%, however - the biggest monthly gain since May 2011. The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in January, with overall yearly wholesale inflation at 1.4%.3,4                 SEQUESTRATION SEEMS IMMINENT On March 1, $85 billion in federal budget cuts are set to occur – and with Congress on recess last week, not much more than talk emerged about delaying them further. Friday, President Obama said he did not believe that the cuts were “inevitable” and commented that “this is not a smart way for us to reduce the deficit”. At the end of last week, no bipartisan effort to reschedule them was underway.5    STOCKS STAGE FIRST WEEKLY RETREAT OF 2013 Pronounced volatility returned to Wall Street last week due to earnings surprises and the January Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes, which raised concerns over the longevity of QE3. How did the key indices do last week? The numbers: Dow, +0.13% to 14,000.57; S&P 500, -0.28% to 1,515.60; NASDAQ, -0.95% to 3,161.82.6    THIS WEEK: Earnings reports from Lowe’s and Hertz arrive Monday. Tuesday, January new home sales figures, a new Conference Board consumer confidence poll and the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index appear, and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke begins two days of testimony in Congress; Macy’s, Home Depot, Saks, AutoZone, Priceline and TiVo announce earnings. Reports on January pending home sales and durable goods orders are out Wednesday plus earnings from Target, Monster, Limited Brands, Dollar Tree, TJX, Groupon and JCPenney. Thursday offers quarterly results from Best Buy, Gap, Sears, Kohl’s and Barnes & Noble and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Friday is March 1: sequester cuts may occur, the final February consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan arrives, February’s ISM manufacturing index and reports on January consumer spending and vehicle sales appear, and Ben Bernanke speaks at the San Francisco Fed.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.84 +8.21 +2.62 +7.46 NASDAQ +4.71 +7.80 +7.45 +13.44 S&P 500 +6.27 +11.63 +2.40 +7.87 REAL YIELD 2/22 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.57% -0.27% 1.44% 1.93%   Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/22/136,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure» This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Citations. 1 - www.marketwatch.com/story/home-sales-inch-up-in-january-as-inventory-shrinks-2013-02-21 [2/21/13] 2 - blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/02/20/housing-starts-fall-but-economists-stay-positive/ [2/22/13] 3 - www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2013/02/21/consumer-prices-flat-in-january/ [2/22/13] 4 - articles.marketwatch.com/2013-02-20/economy/37188507_1_wholesale-prices-vegetable-prices-higher-food-prices [2/22/13] 5 - abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/02/hope-springs-eternal-for-obama-on-budget-cuts/ [2/22/13]   6 - www.cnbc.com/id/100484753 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F22%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F22%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F22%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/22/13] 8 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/22/13] 9 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/22/13]

Economic Update for the week of February 18th, 2013

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE             “A friend is one who walks in when others walk out.”       - Walter Winchell         WEEKLY TIP              See that the family member who will pay nursing home bills meets face-to-face with the person who handles billing for the facility. If there is ever a billing dispute or error, a face-to-face relationship may help resolve it faster.            WEEKLY RIDDLE                If a single-engine airplane taxied not onto a runway, but onto an enormous conveyer belt whose speed precisely equaled that of the plane in the opposite direction, could the plane still manage to take off?        Last week’s riddle: Two men played five games of chess in the park. They both won the same number of games, yet none of the games they played ended in a draw. So how could this be?    Last week’s answer: They didn’t play each other.	February 18, 2013     RETAIL SALES RISE IN JANUARY The increase was minimal – just 0.1% after the 0.5% advance in December – but still welcome in the face of the 2013 payroll tax hike and higher gas prices. Commerce Department data showed core retail sales (which exclude auto, gas and home improvement purchases) up 0.1% for January; they rose 0.7% in December.1    CONSUMERS REGAIN SOME OPTIMISM January’s preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan showed real improvement – an increase of 2.5 points to a three-month peak of 76.3. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 74.8. The index averaged just 64.2 during the 2007-2009 recession.2                 GOLD FALLS $26 IN A DAY The precious metal slipped 1.6% Friday and 3.4% for the week to a Friday close of $1,609.50 on the COMEX, recovering a bit from an intraday dip under $1,600. NYMEX crude futures eked out a 0.1% weekly gain, settling at $95.86 Friday.3    S&P 500 ADVANCES FOR A SEVENTH STRAIGHT WEEK When was the last time the S&P started a year with a seven-week win streak? 1967. That achievement aside, it hasn’t had a winning streak this long in more than two years. The S&P gained 0.12% across five trading days to settle at 1,519.79 Friday, while the Dow saw its second straight weekly retreat (-0.08% to 13,981.76) and the NASDAQ (-0.06% to 3,192.03) also logged a slight weekly decline. The CBOE VIX ended the week at 12.46.3,4    THIS WEEK: U.S. financial markets are closed Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. A new NAHB housing market index appears Tuesday, plus earnings from Herbalife, Medtronic, Express Scripts, Analog Devices, CF Industries, Dell, Marriott, and Fidelity National. January’s Producer Price Index arrives on Wednesday, along with minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting and Census Bureau reports on January housing starts and building permits; quarterly results come in from Sodastream, Devon Energy, Dish Network, BHP Billiton, Garmin, Toll Brothers, Cheesecake Factory and Tesla Motors. The NAR announces existing home sales for January on Thursday; last month’s Consumer Price Index also appears, along with the Conference Board’s latest index of leading indicators, new initial claims figures and earnings from Hewlett-Packard, Wal-Mart, Hormel, Chesapeake Energy, Safeway, AIG, Cabot Oil & Gas, Newmont Mining and Nordstrom. Friday brings quarterly results from Abercrombie & Fitch.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.70 +9.40 +2.65 +7.68 NASDAQ +5.71 +9.47 +7.50 +14.36 S&P 500 +6.56 +13.14 +2.52 +8.20 REAL YIELD 2/15 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.53% -0.26% 1.48% 2.03%   Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/15/134,5,6,7 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure» This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Citations. 1 - www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/13/usa-economy-retail-idUSL1N0BCCZM20130213 [2/13/13] 2 - www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-rose-to-76-3-in-february.html [2/15/13] 3 - www.nasdaq.com/article/dow-closes-a-second-week-in-the-red-despite-late-rally-cm218372 [2/15/13] 4 - www.cnbc.com/id/100463705 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 6 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/15/13] 7 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/15/13]

Economic Update for the week of February 11th, 2013

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE             “Your life does not get better by chance, it gets better by change.”       - Jim Rohn         WEEKLY TIP              New parents should check to see if they qualify for child tax credits and other family tax benefits for tax years 2012 and 2013.          WEEKLY RIDDLE                Two men played five games of chess in the park. They both won the same number of games, yet none of the games they played ended in a draw. So how could this be?        Last week’s riddle: What five-letter word becomes shorter when you add two letters to it?    Last week’s answer: Short.	February 11, 2013     A SOLID EARNINGS SEASON By Friday, nearly 70%of the firms in the S&P 500 had announced quarterly results – and so far, so good. Thomson Reuters data shows that 66% of these companies have beaten revenue projections, and nearly 70% have surpassed earnings forecasts compared to 65% over the previous four quarters. As it stands now, if the rest of the S&P’s components report quarterly results in line with estimates, Q4 earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow 5.2%. Thomson Reuters had projected a 1.9% rise.1,2    ISM SERVICES REPORT SHOWS SUSTAINED GROWTH The U.S. service sector expanded at a marginally slower pace in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index. The January reading of 55.2 wasn’t much removed from the December reading of 55.7, and indicated steadiness in non-manufacturing activity.3    OBAMA ASKS CONGRESS TO POSTPONE BUDGET CUTS Last week, the President asked Capitol Hill lawmakers to “pass a smaller package of spending cuts and tax reforms that would delay the economically damaging effects of the sequester for a few more months.” Some analysts think Democrats will push to end tax breaks for energy firms in an effort to generate more revenue and stave off deeper cuts planned for March 1. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) commented that “raising taxes on private jets or energy companies” amounted to “gimmicks” in lieu of “real solutions” to reducing the deficit.4    NASDAQ SETTLES AT 12-YEAR PEAK The tech-heavy index closed at 3,193.87 Friday, up 0.46% across five trading days. The S&P 500 gained 0.31% last week, settling Friday at 1,517.93. Yet the week was mixed, with the Dow pulling back 0.12% to close at 13,992.97  Friday. On the COMEX, oil ended the week at $96.40, gold at $1,668.80. Gas prices averaged $3.57 a gallon on Friday in AAA’s survey; that was nearly a four-month peak.2,5,6    THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from Lionsgate, and Tuesday brings quarterly results from Barclay’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, McGraw-Hill, Coca-Cola, Avon Products, Michael Kors and Clearwire. The Commerce Department presents reports on January retail sales and December business inventories Wednesday, and earnings reports are in from MetLife, Cisco, Comcast, Deere, Dean Foods and Applied Materials. Quarterly results from CBS, General Motors, PepsiCo and Rio Tinto arrive Thursday, plus the latest initial jobless claims figures. February’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey comes out Friday, along with data on January industrial production and earnings from Campbell Soup.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.78 +8.61 +2.97 +7.79 NASDAQ +5.77 +9.53 +7.71 +14.90 S&P 500 +6.43 +12.44 +2.80 +8.30 REAL YIELD 2/8 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.57% -0.21% 1.36% 2.34%   Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 2/8/122,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure» This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Citations. 1 - www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/08/markets-usa-stocks-idUSL1N0B87T820130208 [2/8/13] 2 - www.cnbc.com/id/100446078 [2/8/13] 3 - www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/business/economy/ism-reports-slower-growth-at-services-companies.html [2/6/13] 4 - www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-sequester-cuts-congress-20130205,0,885371.story [2/5/13]   5 - www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/heating-oil-climbs-as-natural-gas-advances-commodities-at-close.html [2/8/13] 6 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/8/13] 8 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2013 [2/8/13] 8 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/8/13] 9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2003/ofm010803.pdf [1/8/03]