Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Economic Update for the week of October 26th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE
             
“Learn to obey before you command.”
    
- Solon
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
At what age do you want to retire? 62? 65? 70? Having a specific age in mind will help you solidify and refine your retirement plan.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
           
Ray pulls out of his driveway and immediately drives at 55 miles per hour, but he is not cited even though a police car sees him. Why?
  

Last week’s riddle:
I possess a single eye, yet I cannot see. I could, however, hurt you – even if I don’t move. What am I?
     
Last week’s answer:
A needle.




October 26, 2016
  
YEARLY INFLATION INCREASES
Consumer prices rose 1.5% in the 12 months ending in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced last week. That is the highest annualized inflation rate seen since October 2014, up from 1.1% in the year ending in August. The headline Consumer Price Index advanced 0.3% last month; the core CPI 0.1%.1
  
EXISTING HOME SALES REBOUND
September saw a 3.2% gain in resales – the first improvement since June, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers made up 34% of home purchasers, a 4-year peak. Separately, the Census Bureau reported a 9.0% plunge for groundbreaking in September, but building permits increased by 6.3%.2,3
   
OIL PRICES KEEP RISING; STOCKS MAKE MINOR GAINS
Settling Friday at $50.85, light sweet crude added 1.0% for the week. Crude now has a 5-week winning streak going on the NYMEX. All three major indices advanced during the past five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 2,141.16; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.83% to 5,257.40; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.04% to 18,145.71.4,5
   
THIS WEEK: Boise Cascade, Kimberly-Clark, Sonic, T-Mobile, and Visa present earnings Monday. Tuesday offers the October Conference Board consumer confidence index, the August Case-Shiller home price index and earnings reports from 3M, Apple, AT&T, Capital One, Caterpillar, Chipotle, Chubb, Eli Lilly, Express Scripts, JetBlue, Freeport-McMoRan, General Motors, Lexmark, Merck, NCR, Pandora, Panera, Peabody Energy, Procter & Gamble, Sherwin-Williams, Sprint, Under Armour, Unisys, and Valero Energy. September new home sales numbers are out Wednesday, plus earnings from Allegiant Air, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Boeing, Cheesecake Factory, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Garmin, Hilton Worldwide, Ingersoll-Rand, La Quinta Holdings, Netgear, Newmont Mining, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, O’Reilly, Penske, Public Storage, Southwest Airlines, State Street, Tesla, Universal Health Services, W.R. Grace, Waste Management, and Western Digital. Besides a new initial claims report and September pending home sales data, Thursday offers earnings from Aetna, Aflac, Alphabet, Altria, Amazon.com, Amgen, Baidu, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Cabela’s, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Expedia, Ford Motor Co., Genworth Financial, Hanesbrands, Ingram Micro, LinkedIn, Marathon Petroleum, Nokia, Praxair, Sirius XM, Twitter, and Virgin America. On Friday, the initial Q3 GDP estimate and the final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrive, plus earnings from AutoNation, Chevron, Exelon, Exxon Mobil, Hershey, Phillips 66, Weyerhaeuser, and Xerox.
 
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+4.14
+5.69
+10.73
+5.12
NASDAQ
+4.99
+8.62
+19.87
+12.45
S&P 500
+4.76
+6.05
+14.58
+5.64
REAL YIELD
10/21 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.07%
0.59%
0.23%
2.49%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 10/21/165,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi [10/21/16]
2 - consumeraffairs.com/news/sales-of-existing-homes-rebound-in-september-102016.html [10/20/16]
3 - cnbc.com/2016/10/19/us-housing-starts-sept-2016.html [10/19/16]
4 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-gain-1-for-the-week-2016-10-21 [10/21/16]
5 - markets.wsj.com/us [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F21%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F21%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/16]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/21/16]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/21/16]

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Economic Update for the week of October 19th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE
             
“Young is the one that plunges into the future and never looks back.”
    
- Milan Kundera
     
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
If you are trying to rebuild or ramp up your retirement savings in your forties or fifties, avoid grasping at straws. Extremely speculative, high-risk investments are often hard to understand and may drastically underperform compared to their hype.
     
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
           
I possess a single eye, yet I cannot see. I could, however, hurt you – even if I don’t move. What am I?
  

Last week’s riddle:
I have 6 faces, but I wear no makeup. I often roll around and bump into things. What am I?
     
Last week’s answer:
A die (singular of dice).




October 19, 2016
  
RETAIL SALES JUMP 0.6%
This September gain was impressive – minus auto sales, the advance was still 0.5%. In August, both headline and core retail sales fell 0.2%. While consumers bought more last month, they were less confident earlier this month – the University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment index fell 3.3 points to 87.9.1
  
INTEREST RATES MAY SOON RISE
The minutes from September’s Federal Reserve policy meeting affirmed what some investors suspected. One, last month’s decision not to raise the federal funds rate was a “close call.” Two, the Federal Open Market Committee expects to make a move “relatively soon.” Last month, 74% of economists responding to a Wall Street Journal survey thought the central bank would raise rates in December.2
   
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 0.3%
A 2.5% advance in energy prices became the biggest factor in September’s PPI gain. The headline PPI rose 0.7% in the 12 months ending in September.3
  
STOCKS PULL BACK AS EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS
During five choppy trading days last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.56% to 18,138.38; the S&P 500, 0.96% to 2,132.98; and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.48% to 5,214.16. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 16.00 Friday, up 18.69% for the week.4   
THIS WEEK: Monday, Wall Street looks at earnings from Bank of America, Celanese, Del Taco, Hasbro, IBM, J.B. Hunt, Lennox International, and Netflix, plus numbers on September industrial output. On Tuesday, BlackRock, Domino’s Pizza, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Philip Morris, Yahoo!, Regions Financial, UnitedHealth, and W.W. Grainger join the earnings parade, and the September CPI arrives. Abbott Labs, American Express, BB&T, Citrix, eBay, Mattel, Halliburton, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, Seagate, St. Jude Medical, SuperValu, U.S. Bancorp, and United Rentals all report earnings Wednesday; investors will also consider September data on housing starts and building permits, and a new Federal Reserve Beige Book. Thursday offers earnings from Alaska Air, American Airlines, BoNY Mellon, Dunkin’ Brands, E*TRADE, Fifth Third, IMAX, Invacare, Microsoft, Nucor, PayPal, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Schlumberger, Union Pacific, Verizon, and Walgreens Boots Alliance; reports on initial jobless claims and September existing home sales also appear. Friday, the key earnings reports come from General Electric, Honeywell International, McDonalds, Parker Hannifin, SunTrust, and Whirlpool.
 
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+4.09
+7.17
+11.15
+5.17
NASDAQ
+4.13
+9.02
+19.09
+12.12
S&P 500
+4.36
+6.96
+14.84
+5.62
REAL YIELD
10/14 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.13%
0.50%
0.28%
2.47%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 10/14/164,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [10/14/16]
2 - tinyurl.com/hhanz42 [10/12/16]
3 - foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/10/14/september-producer-prices-rise-more-than-expected.html [10/14/16]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F14%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/14/16]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/14/16]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/14/16]

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Economic Update for the week of October 12th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

WEEKLY QUOTE
             
“Treasure the love you have received above all. It will survive long after your gold and good health have vanished.”
    
- Og Mandino
     
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
If you are under 35, see if you can save 15% of your salary toward retirement. If your company matches your retirement plan contributions, count the employer match as part of that 15%.
    
   
WEEKLY RIDDLE
           
I have 6 faces, but I wear no makeup. I often roll around and bump into things. What am I?
  

Last week’s riddle:
What jumps higher than a building?
     
Last week’s answer:
Everything. A building cannot jump.




October 12, 2016
  
hiring picked up in the Third quarter
Employers added 156,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in September, the Department of Labor stated Friday. The August gain was revised up to 167,000, so monthly job growth averaged 192,000 in Q3, improved from 146,000 in Q2. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% in September; the U-6 underemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Yearly wage growth reached 2.6%, with the average hourly wage rising six cents to $25.79.1,2
  
ISM INDICES SHOW A SEPTEMBER REBOUND
America’s manufacturing sector grew again last month; the Institute for Supply Management’s factory PMI improved to 51.5 in September, recovering from its recessionary August mark of 49.4. The Institute’s non-manufacturing PMI surged north 5.7 points last month, rising to 57.1.2
   
OIL & GOLD PRICES HEAD IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
On Friday, gold closed down at $1,251.90 on the COMEX, falling about 5% for the week. Light sweet crude advanced just over 3% last week, closing at $49.81 on the NYMEX Friday, even after a 1.3% loss during the trading week’s last session.3
    
STOCKS END THE WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER
The numbers contained within Friday’s jobs report did not exactly spark a rally, so the S&P 500 settled at 2,153.74, losing 0.67% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both descended 0.37% across five trading days to respective Friday closes of 18,240.49 and 5,292.40.4
   
THIS WEEK: Monday is Columbus Day. Wall Street will be open for business, but federal government offices and banks will be closed. Tuesday, a new earnings season starts with results from Alcoa, Barracuda Networks, and Fastenal. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September monetary policy meeting, and CSX Corp. announces Q3 earnings. Thursday’s earnings parade includes results from Delta Air Lines, Winnebago, and Wynn Resorts; a new initial jobless claims report also arrives. Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday in Boston about the economic recovery; Wall Street will consider her comments, along with the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, September retail sales numbers, the September PPI, and earnings from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC, and Wells Fargo.
 
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+4.68
+7.85
+12.86
+5.39
NASDAQ
+5.69
+10.46
+22.69
+13.01
S&P 500
+5.37
+7.91
+17.28
+5.96
REAL YIELD
10/7 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.10%
0.53%
0.16%
2.37%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 10/7/164,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/10/07/september-jobs-report-the-numbers-2/ [10/7/16]
2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/7/16]
3 - investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-end-with-small-losses-job-growth-slows-honeywell-dives/ [10/7/16]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F7%2F15&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F6%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/7/16]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/7/16]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/7/16]