Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Economic update for the week of August 30th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“Education’s purpose is to replace an empty mind with an open one.”
     
- Malcolm Forbes
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
One path toward some back-to-school shopping savings: follow your favorite stores on Facebook and Twitter. See if they can also text you some discount offers.
     
  
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Together, an antique dresser and the old baseball cards found within it are valued at $20,000. If the baseball cards are worth $18,000 more than the dresser, how much is the dresser worth?
   

Last week’s riddle:
It floats gently when it is born, lies still when it is alive, and runs when it is dead. What is it?
     
Last week’s answer:
Snow.




August 30, 2016
   
YELLEN HINTS AT A RATE HIKE
Speaking Friday at the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed chair Janet Yellen commented that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” That statement was interpreted by some economists as a sign that the central bank could adjust interest rates this fall, but perhaps only after the presidential election.1
    
NEW HOME SALES ACCELERATE, RESALES DECLINE
The good news, from the Census Bureau: July brought a 12.4% leap in new home buying. Sales approached a 9-year peak, even with only 4.3 months of new home inventory available. The bad news, from the National Association of Realtors: July saw existing home purchases slip 3.2%. Inventory was down 5.8% year-over-year; the median sale price was $244,100, 5.3% better than a year earlier.2
    
SENTIMENT GAUGE SLIPS IN AUGUST
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index finished the eighth month of the year at 89.8, underneath its 90.4 preliminary reading. Consumer assessment of current economic conditions remained high at 107.0, increasing nearly a point from the initial August survey.3
     
STOCKS GIVE BACK SOME GROUND
Wall Street wavered after Janet Yellen’s speech Friday, and all three major indices ended up down for the week as investors contemplated her remarks and the federal government’s new 1.1% estimate of Q2 growth. Comparing the settlements at Friday’s closing bell to those a week earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.85% lower at 18,395.40; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.37% lower at 5,218.92; and the S&P 500, 0.68% lower at 2,169.04.3,4
    
THIS WEEK: On Monday, investors will consider the July personal spending report. The Conference Board’s August consumer confidence index and the June Case-Shiller home price index arrive Tuesday, plus earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Bob Evans, DSW, Fred’s, H&R Block, and Palo Alto Networks. Wednesday offers the latest ADP employment change numbers, July pending home sales figures and earnings from Chico’s, Five Below, and Navistar. Thursday, the August Challenger job-cut report, ISM’s August manufacturing PMI and a new initial claims report all appear, along with earnings from Broadcom, Campbell Soup, Land’s End, Lululemon Athletica, Smith & Wesson, and VeriFone. Friday, the Department of Labor issues its August jobs report and Sears Hometown & Outlet Stores announces Q2 results.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+5.57
+12.96
+12.60
+6.30
NASDAQ
+4.22
+11.10
+22.09
+14.38
S&P 500
+6.12
+11.78
+16.86
+6.75
REAL YIELD
8/26 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.15%
0.65%
0.15%
2.24%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/26/164,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - usatoday.com/story/money/2016/08/26/yellen-case-rate-hike-has-strengthened/89363312/ [8/26/16]
2 - nytimes.com/aponline/2016/08/24/us/politics/ap-us-home-sales.html [8/24/16]
3 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [8/26/16]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F26%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F26%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F26%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F26%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F25%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F25%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F25%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/26/16]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/26/16]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/26/16]

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Economic Update for the week of August 23rd, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“Because we don’t think about future generations, they will never forget us.”
     
- Henrik Tikkanen
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
If you have recently divorced, be sure to review your will, your legal documents, and the beneficiary forms for your retirement accounts and insurance policies. All of them may need to be revised.
     
  
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
It floats gently when it is born, lies still when it is alive, and runs when it is dead. What is it?
   

Last week’s riddle:
Three women leave work with only one umbrella to share between them. They all try to fit under the one umbrella as they walk to a cafe. When they reach the cafe, none of them are the least bit wet. Why?
     
Last week’s answer:
It never rained as they were walking.




August 23, 2016
   
IS A 2016 INTEREST RATE HIKE STILL POSSIBLE?
According to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting, some Federal Open Market Committee members felt “that economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step in removing policy accommodation.” Others favored waiting longer to adjust rates, contending that the strong hiring seen in recent months would presently moderate. Fed officials broadly agreed that more economic data would be needed before any action.1
    
NO CPI ADVANCE IN JULY
The federal government’s Consumer Price Index went nowhere last month, leaving yearly inflation at a mere 0.8%. The core CPI advanced another 0.1%, which put the 12-month gain in core consumer prices at 2.2%. In the year ending in June, annual headline inflation was at 1.0%; core inflation, at 2.3%.2
    
HOUSING STARTS RISE 2.1%
This gain comes on the heels of the 5.1% advance for June (first recorded by the Census Bureau as a 4.8% gain). July’s improvement sent the seasonally adjusted annual rate of groundbreaking to a 5-month high. The pace of building permits ticked down 0.1% last month.3
     
CALM TIMES ON WALL STREET
As the trading week wrapped up, the S&P 500 settled almost precisely where it had seven days earlier. For the week, the index lost 0.01% on its way to a Friday close of 2,183.87. The Dow gave back just 0.13% on the week, settling at 18,552.57 Friday. A 0.10% weekly advance left the Nasdaq at 5,238.38 at Friday’s closing bell.4
    
THIS WEEK: Nothing major is slated for Monday. Tuesday, Wall Street considers July new home sales figures and earnings from Best Buy, Intuit, J.M. Smucker, Kirkland’s, La-Z-Boy, Regis Corp., and Toll Brothers. Wednesday, July existing home sales numbers arrive plus earnings from Express, Guess?, HP, and Williams-Sonoma. Reports on initial jobless claims and July durable goods orders complement earnings announcements from Autodesk, Burlington Stores, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, GameStop, Medtronic, Michaels Companies, and Tiffany & Co. on Thursday. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech on the central bank’s monetary policy toolkit Friday morning in Wyoming; away from Jackson Hole, the University of Michigan’s final August consumer sentiment index and the second estimate of Q2 GDP will both arrive Friday, plus earnings from Big Lots.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+6.47
+6.94
+14.30
+6.30
NASDAQ
+4.61
+4.37
+24.74
+14.21
S&P 500
+6.85
+5.01
+18.87
+6.77
REAL YIELD
8/19 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.10%
0.55%
0.02%
2.26%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/19/164,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - cnbc.com/2016/08/17/fed-minutes-fomc-signals-door-still-open-for-2016-rate-hike.html [8/17/16]
2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [8/19/16]
3 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts [8/19/16]
4 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F19%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F19%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F19%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F19%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F18%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F18%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F18%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/19/16]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/19/16]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/19/16]

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Economic Update for the week of August 16th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE


WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“Chance favors the prepared mind.”
     
- Louis Pasteur
      
   
WEEKLY TIP
             
When a single parent is ill or injured and cannot work, a family can face a major financial crisis. Single parents should consider disability insurance in light of that risk.
     
  
WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Three women leave work with only one umbrella to share between them. They all try to fit under the one umbrella as they walk to a cafe. When they reach the cafe, none of them are the least bit wet. Why?
   

Last week’s riddle:
What three letters can you use to spell out a word meaning “enemy?”
     
Last week’s answer:
F, O, E.




August 16, 2016
   
RETAIL SALES WEAKEN
July was the first month since March without a gain in U.S. retail purchases. The Census Bureau’s latest report showed retail sales were flat last month, a disappointment in the wake of June’s 0.8% climb. Car and truck sales advanced 1.1% during July, but, minus auto buying, retail sales were actually down 0.3% for the month.1
   
HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT INDEX IMPROVES
The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment index rose to 90.4 last week in its preliminary August edition. It had ended July at a mark of 90.0. A consensus forecast of economists at Briefing.com had projected a 90.2 reading.1,2
   
WHOLESALE INFLATION RETREATS
The federal government’s Producer Price Index moved 0.4% lower in July as declining energy costs lessened inflation pressure. The core PPI fell 0.3%. In June, the headline PPI rose 0.5%; the core PPI, 0.4%.1,2
     
OIL RALLIES, NASDAQ CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH
August 8-12 was oil’s best week since early April: WTI crude settled at $44.67 on the NYMEX Friday after futures ascended 6.4% in five days. A 0.23% weekly gain led the Nasdaq Composite to a record close of 5,232.89 Friday. History was also made Thursday when the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each settled at all-time highs – the first time that had happened since 1999. The Dow advanced 0.18% for the week; the S&P, 0.05%. The Dow settled Friday at 18,576.47; the S&P, at 2,184.05.1,3
    
THIS WEEK: Sysco announces earnings on Monday. On Tuesday, the July CPI arrives, plus reports on July building permits, groundbreaking and industrial output, and earnings from Advance Auto Parts, Cree, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Popeye’s, TJX Companies, and Urban Outfitters. Wednesday, Wall Street considers the minutes from the July Federal Reserve policy meeting and earnings announcements from Agilent, American Eagle Outfitters, Analog Devices, Cisco, L Brands, Lowe’s, NetApp, NetEase, Staples, and Target. A new initial claims report appears Thursday, along with the Conference Board’s latest leading indicators index, and earnings from America’s Car-Mart, Bon-Ton Stores, Gap, Hormel Foods, Perry Ellis, Ross Stores, Stage Stores, Toro, and Walmart. On Friday, Deere & Co., Estee Lauder, Foot Locker, Stein Mart, and Tuesday Morning present earnings.
  
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+6.61
+6.75
+12.97
+6.75
NASDAQ
+4.50
+3.74
+21.73
+15.43
S&P 500
+6.85
+4.70
+17.06
+7.24
REAL YIELD
8/12 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.07%
0.58%
0.06%
2.33%
 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/12/163,4,5,6
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»
 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
 
Citations.
1 - thestreet.com/story/13674220/1/stocks-close-mixed-as-crude-enjoys-best-weekly-gain-since-april.html [8/12/16]
2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2016/08/08-12 [8/12/16]
3 - markets.wsj.com/us [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F12%2F15&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F12%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F12%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F12%2F11&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F11%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F11%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
4 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F11%2F06&x=0&y=0 [8/12/16]
5 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/12/16]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/12/16]