Economic Update for the week of January 27th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “We must use time as a tool, not as a crutch.”       - John F. Kennedy            WEEKLY TIP               Have you recently become a caregiver, or are you about to become one? It might be wise to try and estimate the impact of your caregiving duties on your finances (work hours lost, out-of-pocket expenses incurred).          WEEKLY RIDDLE              Francis had finished cleaning the windows on his 2-story house when he slipped and fell off a ladder. He wasn’t injured, however. How come?    Last week’s riddle: I sleep by day and fly by night, with no feathers to aid my flight. What am I?      Last week’s answer: A bat.	January 27, 2015                         A RISE IN HOME BUYING Existing home sales were up 2.4% in December and 3.5% for 2014. In its latest report, the National Association of Realtors noted a median sale price of $208,500, 5.8% above a year before. The sales pace in the last half of 2014 was 8% better than in the first half, with cheaper mortgages certainly a factor. (Last week, a 30-year FRM averaged just 3.66% interest.) December saw a 1.9% dip in building permits, but the Census Bureau also noted a 4.4% boost for housing starts. Starts for 2014 totaled 1.01 million, a 9-year high. Last year, groundbreaking increased 8.8%.1,2       ECB FIGHTS DEFLATION RISK WITH STIMULUS Thursday, the European Central Bank unveiled a plan to ease: a massive stimulus that will purchase 60 billion euros (about $69 billion) of bonds per month through September 2016. The tipping point for the move appeared to be the 0.2% December retreat in the eurozone inflation rate. All this easing will weaken the euro even more, thereby offering relief to the export-reliant economies of many eurozone nations.3                  NASDAQ GOES POSITIVE YTD; GOLD TOPS $1,300 Across four days, the tech-heavy benchmark rose 2.68% to settle Friday at 4,757.88. The S&P 500 ended the week at 2,051.82, the Dow at 17,672.60; those settlements resulted from 4-day gains of 1.63% for the S&P and 0.94% for the Dow. Thursday, gold closed above $1,300 on the COMEX for the first time since August; it settled Friday at $1,292.60, up 1.2% for the week. A barrel of West Texas crude was valued at just $45.83 at Friday’s NYMEX close.4,5           THIS WEEK: Monday, investors react to Greece’s elections and earnings from Microsoft, D.R. Horton and Texas Instruments. Tuesday, reports on December hard goods orders and new home sales accompany the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and earnings from Apple, AT&T, 3M, American Airlines, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lockheed Martin, Pfizer, Novartis, Yahoo!, Procter & Gamble, Electronic Arts and Caterpillar. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues a policy statement and earnings arrive from General Dynamics, Facebook, Qualcomm and St. Jude Medical. NAR’s December pending home sales report comes out Thursday, as do new initial claims numbers and earnings from Sherwin-Williams, Stanley Black & Decker, Google, Time Warner Cable, Unisys, Viacom, Visa, Whirlpool, Wynn Resorts, Abbott Labs, Amazon.com, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Harley-Davidson, Ford Motor Co., Hershey, JetBlue, Northrop Grumman, Occidental Petroleum, Raytheon, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Royal Dutch Shell. Friday brings the first estimate of Q4 GDP and the final University of Michigan January consumer sentiment index.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -0.84 +9.11 +14.74 +7.04 NASDAQ +0.46 +12.78 +23.15 +13.69 S&P 500 -0.34 +12.22 +17.59 +7.63 REAL YIELD 1/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.21% 0.66% 1.31% 1.68%   Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/23/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - consumeraffairs.com/news/a-strong-finish-for-sales-of-existing-homes-012315.html [1/23/15] 2 - dailyfinance.com/2015/01/21/new-home-construction-rises-december/ [1/21/15] 3 - latimes.com/business/la-fi-ecb-stimulus-euro-quantitative-easing-20150122-story.html [1/22/15] 4 - proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/59465/gold-retreats-06-to-1292-wti-down-brent-up-59465.html [1/23/15] 5 - fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=4edca382-02d3-4d7b-8766-c764b9def512 [1/23/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F23%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F23%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F23%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F22%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F22%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F22%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/23/15]              8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/23/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/23/15]

Economic Update for the week of January 20th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “Rudeness is the weak man’s imitation of strength.”       - Eric Hoffer            WEEKLY TIP               50 or older this year? Take advantage of increased “catch-up” contributions with your retirement accounts. If your contributions are pre-tax, you will be saving tax dollars along the way.        WEEKLY RIDDLE              I sleep by day and fly by night, with no feathers to aid my flight. What am I?    Last week’s riddle: What comes at the end of a rainbow?      Last week’s answer: The letter W.	January 20, 2015                         WHAT HAPPENED TO RETAIL SALES? Wall Street was surprised by the news of December’s 0.9% retreat, especially given November’s (revised) 0.4% advance. Minus auto buying, the decline was 1.0%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a gain of 0.1%. The plunge came even with holiday sales, cheap gas, strong hiring and increasing optimism about household economic prospects (see below). This disappointment raises concerns about the strength of Q4 consumer spending.1,2       CONSUMER PRICES TAKE A BIG DIP December saw the Consumer Price Index decrease 0.4%, its largest monthly pullback since December 2008. That brought its 2-month decline to 0.7%. Falling gas prices were a major influence, of course – on Friday, AAA announced a nationwide average price of just $2.08 for a gallon of regular unleaded. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit an 11-year peak last week with a preliminary mark of 98.2.1              DRAMA FOR CURRENCIES, A BIG GAIN FOR GOLD The Swiss National Bank rocked the currency markets Thursday by abruptly lifting its cap on its franc. In the minutes after the announcement, the Swiss franc gained 25% on the dollar and 30% against the euro while Germany’s DAX index fell 250 points. Perhaps the SNB anticipates a stimulus from the European Central Bank. COMEX gold futures were up 4.5% last week to $1,276.90 at Friday’s close; WTI crude settled at $48.69 on the NYMEX Friday.3,4         NO WEEKLY GAIN FOR THE S&P 500 It lost 1.24% across five volatile days to close at 2,019.42 Friday. No 5-day advances came for the Nasdaq or Dow either: the former gave back 1.48% to end the week at 4,634.38, the latter 1.27% to settle at 17,511.57 at Friday’s final bell.5           THIS WEEK: On Monday, U.S. financial markets are closed in observance of the birthday of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Tuesday sees IBM and Netflix release earnings. Wednesday, earnings from U.S. Bancorp, eBay and Deluxe Corp. complement the Census Bureau’s December report on housing starts and building permits. Thursday offers earnings from Southwest Airlines, Verizon, Key Corp., Starbucks and Union Pacific and new initial claims figures. Friday brings December existing home sales data from NAR, the Conference Board’s latest leading indicator index and earnings from Honeywell, GE, State Street Corp. and McDonald’s.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -1.75 +6.67 +13.01 +6.48 NASDAQ -2.15 +9.85 +20.51 +12.01 S&P 500 -1.92 +9.40 +15.55 +6.89 REAL YIELD 1/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.23% 0.61% 1.34% 1.71%   Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/16/156,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - businessweek.com/news/2015-01-16/consumer-sentiment-in-u-dot-s-dot-surges-to-11-year-high-as-fuel-drops [1/16/15] 2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/01/12-16 [1/16/15] 3 - tinyurl.com/kyk96kq [1/15/15] 4 - proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/59328/gold-gains-1-to-1276-wti-up-at-4869-59328.html [1/16/15] 5 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [1/16/15] 6 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F16%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F16%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F16%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F15%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F15%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F15%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/16/15]              8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/16/15] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/16/15]

Economic Update for the week of January 13th, 2015

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE                “I would not waste my life in friction when it could be turned into momentum.”       - Frances Willard            WEEKLY TIP               If your business is a corporation, how is it structured? Using multiple entities might lead to big tax savings.        WEEKLY RIDDLE              What comes at the end of a rainbow?    Last week’s riddle: As I age my height changes, but not my importance. Your hand guides me and I help articulate what you want to say. When we part, I am not important or useful to you. What am I?      Last week’s answer: A pencil.	January 13, 2015                         ANOTHER GOOD JOBS REPORT America’s best year for hiring since 2000 wrapped up with 252,000 more people finding work in December. Labor Department data showed the jobless rate declining to 5.6% last month (the U-6 rate tracking the unemployed and underemployed decreased to 11.2%). The economy added 2.53 million non-farm payroll jobs in 2014, representing 1.9% net employment growth. October and November hiring totals were respectively revised up to 261,000 and 353,000. December did see wages slip 0.2%; private sector average hourly earnings increased just 1.7% during 2014.1      DECEMBER SEES ISM SERVICES PMI RETREAT The latest Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index came in at 56.2 – still strong, but well under the November reading of 59.3. Tempering that disappointment is the fact that ISM’s services index has shown sector growth for 59 consecutive months.2             OIL DIPS BENEATH $50 The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8.2% last week on the NYMEX. A barrel was valued at just $48.36 at Friday’s close. With OPEC doing nothing to reduce output, investors are left wondering when the steep losses will end. Gold did very well last week, rising 2.5% on the COMEX to settle Friday at $1,216.10.3         A WILD WEEK, A DOWN WEEK Crude’s continuing slump, excellent December hiring, assumptions of central bank action, fears following the terrorist attack in Paris – they all contributed to pronounced volatility. Selling exceeded buying: the S&P 500 lost 0.63% in five days to settle at 2,044.81 Friday. The Dow pulled back 0.50% for the week to 17,737.37, the Nasdaq 0.49% to 4,704.07.4,5           THIS WEEK: Here comes earnings season: Alcoa reports Q4 results Monday, with KB Home following suit Tuesday. Wednesday offers data on December retail sales and November business inventories, the latest eurozone factory output report, a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve and earnings from Charles Schwab, Kinder Morgan, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. Thursday’s spate of earnings announcements includes releases from Bank of America, Citigroup, Intel, Lennar, Schlumberger and BlackRock. On Friday, the December Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s report on December industrial output arrive along with the latest eurozone inflation reading and the preliminary January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -0.48 +7.86 +13.41 +6.70 NASDAQ -0.68 +13.18 +20.60 +12.43 S&P 500 -0.68 +11.24 +15.72 +7.18 REAL YIELD 1/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.36% 0.66% 1.41% 1.77%   Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/9/155,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 - haver.com [1/9/15] 2 - ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm [1/6/15] 3 - proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/59186/gold-rebounds-after-2-straight-losses-us-crude-settles-down-09--59186.html [1/9/15] 4 - google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=z02wVKKhKe7FiwLW2IBo [1/9/15] 5 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F9%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F9%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F9%2F14&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F8%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F8%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F8%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [1/9/15]               7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/9/15] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/9/15]