Economic Update for the week of July 26th, 2016

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE               “Never harbor grudges; they sour your stomach and do no harm to anyone else.”      - Robertson Davies           WEEKLY TIP               Some parents spend thousands of dollars each year in support of their children’s athletic pursuits. Reducing such expenses could be wise; the money saved could go toward college tuition or retirement.          WEEKLY RIDDLE              Take the number 3 and add another number 3, and you get 6 … but how can you get 8 from a pair of threes?    Last week’s riddle: Can you name three consecutive days without using the words Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday?       Last week’s answer: Yesterday, today and tomorrow.	July 26, 2016    GAINS IN HOME BUYING & HOUSING STARTS June brought a 1.1% rise in existing home sales. Analysts, polled by the Wall Street Journal, had forecast a 0.7% decline. In its new report, the National Association of Realtors said 33% of June sales involved first-time buyers, which was a 4-year peak. New Department of Commerce data showed housing starts up 4.8% last month.1   SOME EARLY EARNINGS SEASON NUMBERS According to the latest Zacks Earnings Trend report, 68.9% of 103 S&P 500 companies reporting so far this season have beaten estimates and 56.3% have topped revenue projections. Zacks now forecasts a 3.6% year-over-year decline in earnings for S&P member firms, better than its 6.2% appraisal of two weeks ago.2    A DOWN WEEK FOR OIL & GOLD FUTURES Wrapping up the week at a NYMEX price of $44.19, WTI crude slipped 3.8% across the five trading days ending Friday. Gold futures gave back 0.3% last week on the COMEX, settling Friday at $1,323.40.3,4   AGING BULL SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTH All three U.S. benchmarks posted gains last week. During July 18-22, the S&P 500 rose 0.61% to 2,175.03; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.40% to 5,100.16; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.29% to 18,570.85.5     THIS WEEK: On Monday, Celanese, CoreLogic, Express Scripts, Gilead Sciences, Kimberly-Clark, Smith Micro, Sprint, and Texas Instruments announce earnings. June new home sales data, July’s Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May’s Case-Shiller home price index arrive Tuesday, plus earnings from 3M, Ally Financial, Ameriprise Financial, Anadarko Petroleum, Apple, Avery Dennison, Caterpillar, Chubb, Citrix, Eli Lilly, Freeport-McMoRan, JetBlue, McDonald’s, Panera, Sirius XM, Twitter, U.S. Steel, Valero Energy, and Verizon. Wednesday, a Federal Reserve policy meeting wraps up; Wall Street also considers June pending home sales and capital goods orders and earnings from Altria, Amgen, Anthem, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Exelon, Facebook, Garmin, GlaxoSmithKline, Goodyear, GoPro, Hilton, Ingersoll-Rand, Marriott, NextEra Energy, Noble Corp., Northrop Grumman, Owens Corning, Public Storage, Ryder, Six Flags, T-Mobile, and Waste Management. Thursday’s earnings parade includes Aflac, Alphabet, Amazon, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Edison International, Expedia, Hershey, Marathon Petroleum, MasterCard, Raytheon, and Virgin America. Friday offers the first Q2 GDP estimate, July’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and earnings from Chevron, ExxonMobil, Phillips 66, Spirit Airlines, UPS, and Xerox.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.58 +4.03 +9.29 +7.09 NASDAQ +1.85 -1.38 +15.68 +15.24 S&P 500 +6.41 +2.88 +12.34 +7.53 REAL YIELD 7/22 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.06% 0.53% 0.61% 2.49%   Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 7/22/165,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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