Economic Update for the week of November 7th, 2018

Weekly Economic Update

Presented by Troy L Thompson, CFP  November 7, 2018

HIRING SURGED LAST MONTH

The Department of Labor’s latest employment report painted a picture of a thriving economy. Payrolls expanded with 250,000 net new hires in October, with wages improving 3.1% year-over-year (that was the best 12-month wage increase in nine years). Unemployment remained remarkably low at 3.7%; underemployment, as measured by the U-6 rate, ticked down 0.1% to 7.4%. October marked the labor market’s 97th straight month of expansion; the main jobless rate has been under 5% for two years. Last month, there were 7.1 million job openings and 6.1 million unemployed Americans.^1,2

     

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, CONFIDENCE REMAIN STRONG

The Department of Commerce reported an advance of 0.4% for personal spending in September, though personal incomes improved by only half that. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index displayed an excellent 137.9 reading for October.^2,3

    

ISM’s FACTORY SECTOR PMI DECLINES

Slipping to 57.7 for October, the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index of manufacturing activity remained far above the 50 mark that serves as the index’s line between sector expansion and contraction. In September, this PMI reached 59.8.³

    

RED TURNS TO GREEN ON WALL STREET

Last week saw all three major U.S. equity benchmarks add value. A 2.36% weekly gain left the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 25,270.83 when Friday’s trading day concluded. The Nasdaq Composite rose even more, improving 2.65% in five days to wrap up the week at 7,356.99. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 advanced 2.42%. At Friday’s closing bell, it stood at 2,723.06. Thanks to these performances, the big three turned positive again for the year.⁴

    

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

The cost of traveling can surprise you over the holidays. It can be less of a surprise if that cost is factored into your household’s monthly budget.

THIS WEEK

The Institute for Supply Management releases its monthly non-manufacturing PMI on Monday; investors will consider its latest reading and earnings from Avis Budget Group, Brighthouse Financial, CNA, Invacare, Kemper, Loews, Marriott International, Mosaic, Rent-A-Center, Sysco, and Valvoline. | Earnings appear Tuesday from Archer Daniels Midland, Bausch Health, Boise Cascade, CVS Health, Eli Lilly, Etsy, Frontier Communications, GoDaddy, Martin Marietta, Papa John’s, Planet Fitness, Ralph Lauren, and Wendy’s. | Wednesday, earnings news emerges from Coty, Dean Foods, Dish Network, Green Dot, Groupon, Horizon Pharma, Hostess Brands, Humana, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Marathon Oil, Michael Kors, Monster Beverage, News Corp., Office Depot, Prudential Financial, Qualcomm, Rockwell Automation, Roku, Sempra Energy, Square, Sunoco, Take-Two Interactive, TiVo, TripAdvisor, and Twenty-First Century Fox. | The Federal Reserve makes an interest rate decision on Thursday, when Activision Blizzard, AMC Entertainment, AstraZeneca, D.R. Horton, Discovery, Dropbox, Hertz Global Holdings, Icahn Enterprises, Lions Gate Entertainment, Redfin, Unisys, Walt Disney Co., and Yelp all present earnings. | The University of Michigan releases its initial consumer sentiment index for November on Friday, complementing the latest wholesale inflation data from the federal government and earnings news from GNC Holdings and Starwood Properties.

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“Creativity can solve almost any problem. The creative act, the defeat of habit by originality, overcomes everything.”

George Lois

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	2.23	7.46	12.37	17.12
NASDAQ	6.57	9.56	17.52	32.62
S&P 500	1.85	5.55	10.92	18.18
REAL YIELD	11/2 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.16	0.48	0.50	3.09

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 11/2/18^4,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

It floats when born, lies down when alive, and runs as it dies. What is it?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: In a thousand years, you will never find it. In a minute, you will notice it once. In a moment, you will see it twice. What is it?

ANSWER: The moon.

Troy L Thompson, CFP may be reached at 515-432-5421 or troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com
www.thompsonfinancialinc.com

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Troy Thompson, CFP

DBA: Thompson Financial, Inc.

and Hanson Asset Strategies

troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - tinyurl.com/y72kqpoj [11/2/18]

2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/24/18]

3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/10/29-02 [11/2/18]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F2%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F2%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F2%2F17&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F1%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F1%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F1%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/2/18]
6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/2/18]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/2/18]