Weekly Economic Update
Presented by Troy L Thompson, CFP, February 20,
2019
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Stocks ended a good week on a
high note, as hints of progress in U.S.-China trade talks encouraged investors.
When the closing bell rang
Friday, the S&P 500 settled at 2,775.60, after rising 2.50% in five days.
The Dow Industrials gained 3.09% to close Friday at 25,883.25. The Nasdaq
Composite improved 2.39% to 7,472.41.1,2
SHUTDOWN AVERTED
Wall Street breathed a sigh
of relief late last week as Congress passed a bill to keep the federal
government funded. President Trump signed the measure on Friday.
The development is expected
to have a positive effect on consumer sentiment, which may influence the
financial markets. During the shutdown, consumer confidence hit an 18-month
low.3,4
Retail Sales Unexpectedly Slip
Thursday, the Census Bureau
announced that retail sales fell 1.2% in December. This was the largest monthly
decline in more than nine years and fell short of expectations. Economists
polled by Bloomberg anticipated a small gain.
Was the slow December mostly
a reflection of consumer anxieties about the shutdown and the stock market? If
so, it is possible that retail spending may see an uptick. (It should be noted
that these monthly numbers are often revised later.)5
Inflation Holds Steady
The Consumer Price Index, the
most widely followed measure of inflation, was flat in January for a third
consecutive month. Year-over-year, overall inflation is running at just 1.6%.
The CPI is one of the key
factors the Fed considers when assessing the economy and determining what lies
ahead for interest rates.6
WHAT’S AHEAD
U.S. and Chinese negotiators
face a March 1 deadline to reach a deal to extend the current tariff truce. In
March, tariffs on many Chinese imports could rise to 25% from 10%. President
Trump said Friday that he is open to postponing the March deadline if it
appears an agreement may be near.7
T I P O F
T H E W E E K
Remember that state tax laws sometimes differ from federal ones. When you prepare your state tax return, keep an eye out for any differences between new federal law and your state’s requirements.
THE WEEK
AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Monday: Presidents’ Day holiday (U.S. financial markets closed).
Wednesday: Minutes of the January Federal Reserve policy meeting are released.
Thursday: January existing home sales.
Friday: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks in New York.
Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, February 15, 2019
The
content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate
information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on
assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to
revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of
reasons, including the shutdown of the government agency or change at the
private institution that handles the material.
THE WEEK AHEAD:
COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday: Devon Energy (DVN), Walmart (WMT)
Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), CVS Health (CVS)
Thursday: Domino’s (DPZ), Fluor (FLR), Intuit
(INTU), Kraft Heinz (KHZ)
Source: Morningstar.com, February 15, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should
not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities.
Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk
tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as
market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than
their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without
notice.
Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K
“We cannot control
the evil tongues of others; but a good
life enables us to disregard
them.”
CATO THE ELDER
T H E W E E K L Y
R I D D L E
Nancy was born in summer, yet she was born in January,
how is this possible?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: I have no
eyes, ears, tongue, or nose, yet I have the power to see, hear, taste, and
smell everything. What am I?
ANSWER: Your brain.
Troy L Thompson, CFP may be
reached at 515-432-5421 or troy@thompsonfinancialinc.com
www.thompsonfinancialinc.com
www.thompsonfinancialinc.com
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Troy Thompson, CFP
DBA: Thompson Financial, Inc.
and Hanson Asset Strategies
Securities offered through
FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC.
Member FINRA & SIPC.
Thompson Financial is not affiliated with
FIRST HEARTLAND CAPITAL, INC.
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does
not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their
affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be
accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may
be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should
not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on
for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a
solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance
product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices
discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not
indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a
price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ
Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common
stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated
Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap
weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading
industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two
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(formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific
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(NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the
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palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.
Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency
fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting
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a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events,
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competent professional.
CITATIONS:
2 -
quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [2/15/19]
3
- washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-border-emergency-the-president-plans-a-10-am-announcement-in-the-rose-garden/2019/02/15/f0310e62-3110-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html
[2/15/19]
4 -
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-29/u-s-consumer-confidence-declines-to-18-month-low-amid-shutdown
[1/29/19]
5 -
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/u-s-retail-sales-fall-most-in-nine-years-amid-stock-plunge
[2/14/19]
6 -
reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inflation/lower-gasoline-prices-restrain-u-s-consumer-inflation-idUSKCN1Q21N1
[2/13/19]
7 -
apnews.com/c322842d356248d2860bb77e84641ca3 [2/15/19]
CHART
CITATIONS:
quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX
[2/15/19]
quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices
[2/15/19]
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
[2/15/19]
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll
[2/15/19]
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